52 Montezuma St · Lyons, NY 14489

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 241 Days on market

Built 1926 0.29 ac lot $72/sqft · at area comps Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom , 1 bath home with plenty of living space. Close to downtown and schools. This home has hardwood floors, a large back yard, walk out basement. Currently used as a rental with a positive cash flow. Use as an investment property, or make it you own home.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Large back yard
• Walk out basement

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE BACK YARD
• WALK OUT BASEMENT
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#270 in NY, #4,307 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lyons Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #549 of 590 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $95k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.26%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,610
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 4.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Montezuma St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,264 (-4%)	4mo	$75,000	$59	86
2 Elm St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+3%)	3mo	$149,000	$110	83
3 Scott St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,392 (+6%)	15mo	$125,500	$90	73
171 Canal St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,240 (-6%)	4mo	$89,900	$73	70
38 Shuler St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-4%)	15mo	$79,000	$63	66
46 Shuler St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-14%)	6mo	$84,500	$75	57
4 Rice St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-9%)	5mo	$70,000	$59	55
3 Maple St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-7%)	9mo	$110,000	$90	51
7 High St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,490 (+13%)	8mo	$115,000	$77	47
21 Maple St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,474 (+12%)	5mo	$144,900	$98	46
20 High St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (-15%)	17mo	$105,000	$93	35
21 Dickerson St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-15%)	12mo	$190,000	$169	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $58,458
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.31×
• Total profit: $167,902
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14489

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $127	+0% $100	+5% $73	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $33	+0% $100	+5% $166	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $124	base $100	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
947 Sohn Alloway Rd Unit 24 Lyons, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,675	$1.52	24d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 223 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $95,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    3 Bedroom , 1 bath home with plenty of living space. Close to downtown and schools. This home has hardwood floors, a large back yard, walk out basement. Currently used as a rental with a positive cash flow. Use as an investment property, or make it you own home.

16. 2026-01-08
    price $78,500 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    3 Bedroom , 1 bath home with plenty of living space. Close to downtown and schools. This home has hardwood floors, a large back yard, walk out basement. Currently used as a rental with a positive cash flow. Use as an investment property, or make it you own home.

17. 2025-11-06
    price $80,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    3 Bedroom , 1 bath home with plenty of living space. Close to downtown and schools. This home has hardwood floors, a large back yard, walk out basement. Currently used as a rental with a positive cash flow. Use as an investment property, or make it you own home.

18. 2025-10-20
    listed $85,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    3 Bedroom , 1 bath home with plenty of living space. Close to downtown and schools. This home has hardwood floors, a large back yard, walk out basement. Currently used as a rental with a positive cash flow. Use as an investment property, or make it you own home.

19. 2025-02-21
    historical
20. 2025-01-04
    listed $100,000 Active
21. 2014-05-23
    soldstatus $20,000
22. 2013-12-17
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $94
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyons Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $43,076
• Composite: 31.73/100
• National rank: #5909
• State rank: #549 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #4307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,016

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.65%
• Current HPI: 311.1445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+281.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $78,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $80,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $100,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-05-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-12-17 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,705 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.