Is 5255 Lookout Ridge Dr in Marble Falls, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 0.2% cap rate and $-4,220/mo modeled cash flow at a $825,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5255 Lookout Ridge Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 0.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,944/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 28.47

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
Cash flow +0.0/30.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$825,000

5255 Lookout Ridge Dr · Marble Falls, TX 78654

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition 3.09 ac lot Garage $368/sqft · 29% below area Est $1.154M · 29% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Charming country style Home on 3.09-Acres at Lake Travis which allows horses. Home rests off street at northeast quadrant of the Lot. Scenic views of Muleshoe Bend of Lake Travis and panoramic hill country. Home is well designed with master down on entry level, wet bar with wine chiller, fireplace, open great room, granite kitchen with large breakfast bar for entertaining. Huge covered back porch plus upstairs covered balcony with cathedral wood ceiling. 4-car deep drive thru garage with both front and rear overhead doors. Laundry mud room with sink. Master primary bath with deep soaking tub, separate shower, double vanity and walk-in closets.

Key facts

Open great room
Barn on 2.75 acres
Allows horses

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $825k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-51k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (74.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (76.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $194k (76.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 2.5% in Marble Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#367 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 1072 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($726k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,408 (76.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.24% ✗
Cap rate: 0.16%
Cash-on-cash: -21.92%
DSCR: 0.02
GRM: 35.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $1,154,272
List price: $825,000
Delta: -28.53%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
333 Quail Run Ct	2.12mi	3/3.5	2,126 (-5%)	7mo	$559,000	$263	50
207 Wesley Ridge Dr	1.74mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,307 (+3%)	7mo	$524,990	$228	49
2405 Founders Cir	2.08mi	3/2.0	2,174 (-3%)	7mo	$449,000	$207	48
512 Harbor Dr #7	2.08mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,489 (+11%)	1mo	$699,000	$281	39
340 Harbor Dr	2.05mi	3/3.5	1,824 (-19%)	4mo	$375,000	$206	36
839 Wesley Ridge Dr	1.70mi	3/3.5	2,872 (+28%)	8mo	$1,095,000	$381	34
5004 Singleton Bend Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,774 (+24%)	18mo	$1,179,000	$425	33
5004 Singleton Bend Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,774 (+24%)	18mo	$1,179,000	$425	33
2422 Founders Cir	2.09mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,623 (+17%)	2mo	$635,000	$242	33
6300 Paradise Manor Cir	1.97mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,590 (+16%)	4mo	$440,000	$170	30
26011 Masters Pkwy	2.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,658 (+18%)	17mo	$1,049,000	$395	19
26305 Countryside Dr	1.98mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,856 (+27%)	23mo	$869,000	$304	14

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -65.4%
Equity multiple: -0.77×
Total profit: $-408,067
Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -2.13×
Total profit: $-723,155
Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active
Median asking: $1,119,500 ($537/sqft)
Median days on market: 153 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78654

Home prices YoY: -31.8%
Rents YoY: -0.6%
Active inventory: 1072
Price-to-rent: 35.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,944 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,031 /mo · $12,375/yr
Insurance: −$344
HOA: −$54
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
Net cashflow: $-4,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,285

Max offer price $214,422

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,649	-5% $-3,934	+0% $-4,220	+5% $-4,505	+10% $-4,790
Rent	-10% $-4,373	-5% $-4,296	+0% $-4,220	+5% $-4,143	+10% $-4,066
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,804	-0.5pp $-4,010	base $-4,220	+0.5pp $-4,433	+1.0pp $-4,651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $206,250
Closing costs: $24,750
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26822 Blue Cove Rd Marble Falls, TX	3.0	1.0	1445	$1,999	$1.38	10d	1	0.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association (LRPOA on Lake Travis Inc)Annual association fee of $650 covering common area maintenance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

Parking: Attached garageGarage faces front and rearDriveway parkingGarage with multiple doorsKitchen-level garage accessTotal parking for 8 vehiclesFour covered parking spacesFour garage spaces
Security: Security system
Utilities: Electricity connectedFiber optic availablePropane availablePhone connectedWater connectedSeptic tankWell water
Home design: Two-story houseFaces eastResale propertyBuilder: Marick Custom Homes
Construction: Metal roofStone veneer exteriorSlab foundationBuilt in public-record year
Exterior features: BalconyRear covered porch and front porchPatio / terracePrivate yardAutomatic sprinklersOutdoor lightingRain guttersShed(s)Fenced with masonry and pipeLakefront (Lake Travis), seasonal waterfrontViewsCleared and level areas with many treesGardenSloped sections

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in electric ovenBuilt-in ovenPropane cooktopWarming drawerMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalBar fridgeFree-standing refrigeratorStainless steel appliancesWine cooler
Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
Flooring: Wood flooringTile flooringCarpet
Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric / heat pump)Central air conditioningElectric heating
Interior features: Beamed ceilings / open beamsWet bar / barBreakfast barCeiling fansDouble vanity in bathGranite countersPantryWalk-in closetsBlinds and drapesDouble-pane windowsAccessible doorsMain-level primary suiteMultiple primary suites
Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry access on main and lower levels

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $825,000 Active 170 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $825,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $825,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $825,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $825,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $825,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $825,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $825,000 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $825,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $825,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $825,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $825,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $825,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $825,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $825,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $825,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $825,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $825,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $825,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $825,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $825,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $825,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $825,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $825,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $825,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $825,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $825,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $825,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $825,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $825,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $825,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $825,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $825,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $825,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $825,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-04

pricedays on market $825,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $875,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $875,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $875,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $875,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $875,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $875,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $875,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $875,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $875,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $875,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $875,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $875,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $875,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $875,000 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,329
− Mortgage interest: −$46,213
− Property taxes: −$12,375
− Insurance: −$4,125
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
− Management: −$1,866
− HOA: −$648
− Depreciation: −$24,000
Taxable loss: −$67,765

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,263
After-tax cash flow: $-34,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,215–$33,645 screening

This charming country-style home on 2.75 acres at Lake Travis is in good condition with modern amenities and scenic views. It's move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Colt El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Marble Falls Middle F TX #858/1,662 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Marble Falls H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Marble Falls ISD
NCES district ID: 4829010
Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $49,663
Composite: 30.3/100
National rank: #6278
State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Marble Falls

Score: 70/100
State rank: #367
US rank: #7802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Burnet County · 1,545,133 people
City population: 20,650
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,650
Household income: $74,130
Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
Current HPI: 252.9861
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.62%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-22 Listed $875,000 Unlock MLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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