960 Mason Bay Rd · Jonesport, ME 04649

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · Manufactured public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1976 21 ac lot Est $118k · 10% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 21 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Moosabec CSD (rural): math 0% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #185 of 185 in ME (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,144
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
960 Mason Bay Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	832 (0%)	1mo	$118,000	$142	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,471
• Equity at exit: $21,498

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,925
• Equity at exit: $14,923

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04649

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,254/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $203	+0% $166	+5% $130	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $116	+0% $166	+5% $217	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $199	base $166	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   status Active
3. 2026-04-23
   price $129,900
4. 2026-03-26
   historical
5. 2025-05-05
   listed $134,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,254
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moosabec CSD
• NCES district ID: 2308400
• Math proficiency: 0% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 40.00%
• Median HH income: $36,806
• Composite: 19.82/100
• National rank: #13895
• State rank: #185 of 185 in ME

Livability — Jonesport

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,276

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,818 people
• By 2030: 27,147 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 23,809 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 21,035 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 16,793 · -41.7%
• By 2100: 14,395 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.5% · R 61.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+16.2 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.63%
• Current HPI: 165.0338
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $129,900 MREIS
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — MREIS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $134,500 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,254 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.