3821 S Townline Rd · Denton, MI 48651

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do you want to live away from the hustle and bustle? Check out this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage with lots of updates and room for your toys! Just 1 mile from beautiful Houghton Lake! where you can enjoy boating, swimming or fishing. Or jump on your ATV/UTV and hit the trails that are right up the road. Nestled on over an acre of land with plenty of mature trees, this property offers a private and peaceful setting while still being close to it all. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a quiet retreat surrounded by nature, yet only minutes from town where you'll find a variety of restaurants, shopping, and local conveniences. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, a year-round home, or an investment opportunity, this cozy cottage is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Buyer and Buyers agent to verify all information

Key facts

• Atv utv trails
• Private setting
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• ATV UTV TRAILS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry; Exterior siding: aluminum and vinyl
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road access; Lot approximately 1.16 acres (171 x 297)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,629
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,346
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48651

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $149,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Do you want to live away from the hustle and bustle? Check out this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage with lots of updates and room for your toys! Just 1 mile from beautiful Houghton Lake! where you can enjoy boating, swimming or fishing. Or jump on your ATV/UTV and hit the trails that are right up the road. Nestled on over an acre of land with plenty of mature trees, this property offers a private and peaceful setting while still being close to it all. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a quiet retreat surrounded by nature, yet only minutes from town where you'll find a variety of restaurants, shopping, and local conveniences. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, a year-round home, or an investment opportunity, this cozy cottage is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Buyer and Buyers agent to verify all information

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $150,000 Active 851-char remark

    Show marketing remark (851 chars)

    Do you want to live away from the hustle and bustle? Check out this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage with lots of updates and room for your toys! Just 1 mile from beautiful Houghton Lake! where you can enjoy boating, swimming or fishing. Or jump on your ATV/UTV and hit the trails that are right up the road. Nestled on over an acre of land with plenty of mature trees, this property offers a private and peaceful setting while still being close to it all. Enjoy the best of both worlds with a quiet retreat surrounded by nature, yet only minutes from town where you'll find a variety of restaurants, shopping, and local conveniences. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, a year-round home, or an investment opportunity, this cozy cottage is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Buyer and Buyers agent to verify all information

19. 2026-02-18
    historical
20. 2025-10-05
    status Active
21. 2025-10-05
    status Active
22. 2025-09-24
    status Pending
23. 2025-09-24
    status Pending
24. 2025-09-22
    historical
25. 2025-09-02
    listed $150,000 Active
26. 2025-09-02
    listed $150,000 Active
27. 2025-06-09
    soldstatus $136,000
28. 2025-06-06
    soldstatus $136,000 Closed
29. 2025-06-06
    soldstatus $136,000 Closed
30. 2025-06-06
    soldstatus $136,000 Closed
31. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
32. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
33. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
34. 2025-04-24
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
35. 2025-04-24
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2025-04-24
    historical Active Under Contract
37. 2025-04-14
    price $130,000
38. 2025-04-14
    price $130,000
39. 2025-04-13
    price $130,000
40. 2025-03-14
    price $135,000
41. 2025-03-13
    price $135,000
42. 2025-03-13
    price $135,000
43. 2025-03-03
    price $139,900
44. 2025-03-03
    price $139,900
45. 2025-03-02
    price $139,900
46. 2025-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active
47. 2025-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active
48. 2025-02-25
    listed $145,000 Active
49. 2024-10-14
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
50. 2024-09-10
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 56.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$368
• After-tax cash flow: $3,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Denton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houghton Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,331

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.27%
• Current HPI: 252.9662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-05 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-05 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-24 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $150,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-02 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-06 Sold (MLS) $136,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-06 Sold (MLS) $136,000 WWMLS
• 2025-06-06 Sold (MLS) $136,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-23 Pending — WWMLS
• 2025-05-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-24 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-24 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2025-04-24 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-13 Price Changed $130,000 WWMLS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $135,000 WWMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $139,900 WWMLS
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-02-25 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $145,000 WWMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-14 Sold (MLS) $135,000 WWMLS
• 2024-09-10 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2024-08-29 Pending — WWMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $135,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.