8611 Mary Ann Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · Manufactured public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1986 $216/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in Ready. .. This 1399 Sq ft home, has been well maintained and features: 3 Spacious bedrooms, 2 full baths, Stainless Steel appliances, Solid wood cabinets, Wood flooring, Washer/Dryer/Utility room, Hurricane rated windows, Carport parking for a couple of cars and Extra Storage. La Buona Vita is a Beautiful 55+ COOP Community, where each owner, owns a share in the community (No Land Lease Fees) Amenities include; A Swimming Pool, Shuffleboard, Clubhouse and Activities as well as RV/Boat storage. The low $197.00 month, HOA fee includes basic cable, Internet and trash removal. Conveniently located just off US 1, near Restaurants, Shopping, Medical Facilities and the Civic Center and ju

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Solid wood cabinets
• Extra storage

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS
• WOOD FLOORING
• HURRICANE RATED WINDOWS
• CARPORT PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community with clubhouse, pool, storage, community room, and street lights; Monthly association fee of $216; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces north; Resale condition
• Construction: Modular construction
• Exterior features: Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Walk-in closet(s); Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $125,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 6.4% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $125k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.03%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,698
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8591 Mary Ann Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	7mo	$75,000	$55	83
8580 Mary Ann Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (+5%)	5mo	$175,000	$119	80
8636 Florence Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-10%)	2mo	$130,000	$103	76
501 La Buona Vita Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,289 (-8%)	9mo	$132,000	$102	68
8 S Alhambra Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+0%)	14mo	$100,000	$71	65
560 Natalie Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-11%)	18mo	$162,800	$130	50
5 Yolanda Ln	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-8%)	5mo	$39,000	$30	42
23 San Pablo Ln	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	13mo	$37,000	$31	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,848
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $52,391
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 645
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $655	-5% $620	+0% $584	+5% $549	+10% $513
Rent	-10% $417	-5% $501	+0% $584	+5% $668	+10% $752
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $616	base $584	+0.5pp $552	+1.0pp $519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	16d	15	0.61mi
805 SE Cavern Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,500	$1.44	25d	1	0.85mi
991 SE Walters Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$8,500	$8.17	25d	1	0.97mi
730 SE White Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1386	$10,000	$7.22	25d	1	1.00mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	16d	7	1.03mi
650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$2,095	$2.15	16d	1	1.14mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	16d	1	1.16mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	25d	1	1.24mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	16d	6	1.37mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	25d	1	1.39mi
1350 SE La Haven Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1041	$2,100	$2.02	25d	1	1.42mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	25d	1	1.42mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	25d	1	1.47mi
1456 SE Rivergreen Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,825	$1.98	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $216 · $2,592/yr
• Likely covers: trashinternetcablepool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 299 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 298 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    price $130,000
19. 2026-03-01
    price $139,500
20. 2025-12-19
    price $145,000
21. 2025-12-16
    status Active
22. 2025-12-09
    status Pending
23. 2025-09-25
    price $159,900
24. 2025-07-30
    listed $165,900 Active
25. 2014-10-12
    historical
26. 2007-08-17
    soldstatus $30,000
27. 2007-03-08
    listed $44,500
28. 2001-06-01
    soldstatus $4,450,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $5,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $130,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $139,500 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $145,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-09 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $159,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $165,900 Beaches MLS
• 2014-10-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2007-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-08 Listed $44,500 Beaches MLS
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,450,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +422.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.