620 E Noleman St · Centralia, IL 62801

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1923 3,179 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors & landlords! This spacious 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers plenty of room and endless potential. Conveniently located within walking distance to local amenities, shopping, and more. Seller is HIGHLY MOTIVATED and ready to make a deal!

Key facts

• 3,179 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1923

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Built before 1978
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Two owned parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family, one-story home; Fee simple ownership; Property currently leased; Built more than 100 years ago; School bus service available
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 80; Less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (11 x 11) with vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (14 x 11) with carpet; Bedroom on main level (13 x 13) with carpet; Bedroom on main level (11 x 11) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in main living areas and bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Unfinished partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (5 x 9) with vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.9% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $50k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.36%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $7,053
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $25,754
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $251	+0% $237	+5% $223	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $205	+0% $237	+5% $269	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $250	base $237	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 S Hickory St Centralia, IL	3.0	2.0	1814	$800	$0.44	45d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-25
    listed $49,900 Active
19. 2025-12-17
    historical
20. 2025-03-25
    historical
21. 2024-10-08
    listed $49,000 Active
22. 2024-04-23
    historical
23. 2023-10-23
    listed $45,000 Active
24. 2023-09-23
    historical
25. 2023-04-03
    listed $45,000 Active
26. 2023-03-22
    historical
27. 2023-01-18
    price $45,000
28. 2022-08-11
    status Active
29. 2021-08-07
    historical
30. 2021-08-06
    historical
31. 2014-03-27
    soldstatus $11,900
32. 2014-03-27
    soldstatus $11,900
33. 2013-11-04
    listed $11,900
34. 2013-11-04
    listed $11,900
35. 2004-11-29
    soldstatus $31,000
36. 2004-10-20
    listed $32,500
37. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $18,500
38. 2003-06-18
    listed $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $2,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$532
• After-tax cash flow: $2,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+137.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $49,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-08 Listed $49,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-03 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-22 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-07 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-27 Sold (MLS) $11,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-27 Sold (MLS) $11,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-04 Listed $11,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-04 Listed $11,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-29 Sold (MLS) $31,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-20 Listed $32,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $18,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-18 Listed $21,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,350 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.