12807 Grand Cross Ln · Houston, TX 77072

$175,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1976 6,551 sqft lot Est $286k · 39% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity / Fixer-Upper! Unlock the potential of this 4-bed, 3-bath home at 12807 Grand Cross Lane. No back neighbors starts off the benefits of this opportunity. This property is a true canvas for creativity — perfect for investors or savvy buyers ready to add sweat equity. With imagination and vision, you can transform this diamond in the rough into a stunning dream home. Located in a very nice and well located neighborhood. With easy access to the Beltway and I-10 to get you wherever you need to be. Don’t miss the chance to make your mark and maximize the value of this unique opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,551 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Killough Middle (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 816 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 206 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,170/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 3500% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7610 Timberway Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,237 (+2%)	8mo	$232,000	$104	83
7310 Treewater Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,151 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$105	66
7907 Beech Park Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,106 (-4%)	1mo	$295,000	$140	61
7710 Harpers Glen Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+12%)	7mo	$285,000	$116	59
12814 Carvel Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (-6%)	12mo	$289,000	$140	59
12627 Ashford Shore Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,914 (-12%)	5mo	$268,000	$140	52
8410 Whitmore Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-3%)	8mo	$314,900	$148	49
13159 Leader St Unit T	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,333 (+7%)	9mo	$298,000	$128	48
8711 S Dairy Ashford Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,951 (-11%)	5mo	$255,000	$131	40
8427 Brickhaven Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,396 (+10%)	7mo	$294,990	$123	39
7011 Westover Ridge Dr	0.58mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,430 (+11%)	11mo	$363,000	$149	38
13026 Lima Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	10mo	$170,000	$91	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,716
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,627
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77072

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$476 /mo · $5,707/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $280	+0% $231	+5% $181	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $145	+0% $231	+5% $316	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $275	base $231	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12717 Yoshino Cherry St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,950	$1.18	25d	1	0.47mi
6843 Greenway Chase St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1422	$2,200	$1.55	44d	1	0.64mi
13414 Beechglen Ln Houston, TX	5.0	3.0	2406	$2,375	$0.99	44d	1	0.71mi
13027 Bacard Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$1,750	$1.00	44d	1	0.79mi
6700 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1035	$1,730	$1.67	23d	19	0.91mi
13314 Sleepy Creek Mdws Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2984	$2,200	$0.74	25d	1	0.98mi
7407 Riptide Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1538	$1,900	$1.24	5d	1	1.01mi
9506 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1223	$1,260	$1.03	2d	13	1.24mi
6115 Westbranch Dr Houston, TX	5.0	3.0	2007	$3,000	$1.49	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    historical $175,000
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,707 · $476/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,707 · $476/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,707
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $2,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,108
• Household income: $51,070
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3500.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 24% Black 23% Two or more races 19% White 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 40% Vietnamese 16% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 362.1985
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Coming Soon $175,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,707 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.