12 Ashley Pl · Lockport, NY 14094

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1880 3,049 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE. .. So many updates have already been completed for you at 12 Ashley Place in Lockport! This spacious home offers incredible flexibility and room for everyone. Currently being used as a 2 unit with 2 bedrooms full bath, kitchen and living room on the 1st floor. 2nd floor has 3 bdrms, bathroom, kitchen and covered deck for enjoying the city landscape. The driveway with carport has room for 3 cars. Tear off roof, furnace, hot water tank 2020. Replacement windows throughout, full attic, laminate flooring. Would make an excellent in-law setup. Could easily be converted back to a single family. If conventional financing, upper Kitchen can be changed into a 2nd floor laundry room.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Tear off roof
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• TEAR OFF ROOF
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• FULL ATTIC
• LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot irregularly shaped; Near public transit; Partial fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 45 x 86

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Existing (year built details)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Balcony; Fence; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout; Second kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; In-law suite included
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies by room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Second kitchen (in-law setup); In-law floorplan; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Laundry on upper level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.97%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Blackley Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$81	82
100 Regent St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,795 (+4%)	0mo	$248,000	$138	69
160 Waterman St	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,868 (+8%)	3mo	$150,000	$80	63
413 Pine St	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,704 (-1%)	6mo	$275,000	$161	59
250 Pine St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,956 (+13%)	5mo	$260,000	$133	58
106 Saxton St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,560 (-10%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	57
391 Walnut St	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,856 (+7%)	2mo	$180,400	$97	57
293 Pine St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-14%)	2mo	$275,000	$186	56
44 Erie St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (-12%)	3mo	$180,000	$118	55
69 Morrow Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,510 (-13%)	1mo	$195,000	$129	52
319 Willow St	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,912 (+11%)	2mo	$200,000	$105	48
62 Grand St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,505 (-13%)	4mo	$45,000	$30	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,547
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $42,214
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,124/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Waterman St Unit 3 Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	23d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $100,000
17. 2026-03-30
    price $115,000
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,124
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$745
• After-tax cash flow: $3,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $100,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+40.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,124 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.