4515 Providence St · Houston, TX 77020

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2006 5,000 sqft lot Est $183k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity. Home can be renovated or torn down for new construction.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (single level); Built in 2006
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 5,000 square feet; Other lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henderson N El (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 227 students, 100% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,483
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4614 Providence St	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,126 (+5%)	18mo	$145,000	$129	75
4617 Vernon St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-13%)	1mo	$160,000	$171	68
4615 Buck St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	966 (-10%)	11mo	$125,500	$130	67
4415 Lyons Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-4%)	13mo	$215,000	$208	61
5114 Farmer St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-3%)	7mo	$215,000	$208	58
4803 Farmer St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+12%)	7mo	$140,000	$117	57
4314 Rawley St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	9mo	$195,900	$187	57
4705 Coke St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+13%)	9mo	$245,000	$202	53
4320 Rawley St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	22mo	$215,900	$206	43
1618 Capron St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (-8%)	12mo	$120,000	$121	42
5418 Arapahoe St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-14%)	11mo	$140,000	$152	40
5214 Hershe St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,207 (+12%)	7mo	$164,000	$136	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $94,896
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.58×
• Total profit: $276,250
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,714/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,572

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $211	+0% $169	+5% $126	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $98	+0% $169	+5% $239	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $207	base $169	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	6d	1	0.42mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.58mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	45d	1	0.73mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	45d	1	0.86mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	0d	1	0.86mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	45d	1	1.03mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	25d	1	1.08mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,320	$1.32	6d	1	1.08mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,082	$2.08	0d	1	1.24mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$2,713	$2.80	0d	69	1.37mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	22d	16	1.37mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	1.41mi
132 N Estelle St Unit 1526930P Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,760	$1.64	9d	1	1.48mi
146 N Milby St Unit 2 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 78-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,714 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,714 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,714
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,714 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.