378 SW Tularosa Ln · Lake City, FL 32025

$183,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1953 0.26 ac lot Est $252k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet dead end street, this hidden gem offers the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Surrounded by mature shade trees, the setting feels peaceful and secluded while still being just minutes from schools, shopping, dining, and hospitals. Inside, you will love the oversized primary suite privately positioned at the rear of the home, creating a true retreat. Step outside to a spacious deck shaded by beautiful trees, ideal for relaxing mornings, evening gatherings, or weekend entertaining. Need extra space? The large storage room or workshop offers endless possibilities for hobbies, tools, equipment, or additional flex space. If you are looking for comfort, convenience,

Key facts

• Spacious deck
• Large storage room
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• SPACIOUS DECK
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-story residence; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $184k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,324
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 SW Short Ln	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-12%)	3mo	$150,000	$110	71
1103 SW Sunbeam Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-0%)	10mo	$300,000	$195	62
294 SW Columbia Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$147	61
926 SW Brookdale Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+5%)	1mo	$265,000	$163	57
1520 SE Valencia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+3%)	4mo	$233,000	$147	56
1188 SW Mcfarlane Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	4mo	$280,000	$200	53
880 SW Cherub Gln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-12%)	6mo	$279,000	$206	46
493 SE Church Ave	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	45
1559 SE Valencia Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-8%)	10mo	$294,000	$207	42
773 SW Bali Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+11%)	13mo	$235,000	$136	39
895 SW Brookdale Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+12%)	10mo	$395,000	$227	39
1626 SW Caroline Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+9%)	14mo	$235,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $109,898
• Equity at exit: $165,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $315,835
• Equity at exit: $356,500

Cash invested: $51,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$962
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,481/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $183,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $208	+0% $156	+5% $104	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $86	+0% $156	+5% $226	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $203	base $156	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,875
• Closing costs: $5,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $183,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $183,500 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,500 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,500 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,500 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,500 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $183,500 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $183,500 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,500 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $183,500 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $183,500 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $183,500 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $183,500 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $183,500 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $183,500 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $183,500 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,500 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,500 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-02-12
    listed $190,500 Active
20. 2025-05-05
    price $203,000
21. 2025-04-04
    listed $196,300 Active
22. 2023-08-21
    listed $212,500 Active
23. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus $83,500
24. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $83,500
25. 2009-02-19
    soldstatus $78,500
26. 2004-08-17
    soldstatus $52,000
27. 2003-12-04
    soldstatus $42,000
28. 2000-08-02
    soldstatus $51,900
29. 1999-04-06
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,279
• − Property taxes: −$2,481
• − Insurance: −$918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,338
• Taxable loss: −$1,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$271
• After-tax cash flow: $2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+444.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $190,500 NFMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $203,000 NFMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $196,300 NFMLS
• 2023-08-21 Listed $212,500 NFMLS
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) $83,500 NFMLS
• 2009-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2004-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 1999-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,481 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.