9403 Pierce Ln #22 · Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $76/sqft · 37% below area Est $110k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Look no further! Very well maintained home in the sought after 55+ community, Lazy Acres. Exterior paint and roof redone last year. All new vapor barrier and insulation. Accessibility features through out. Hand rails everywhere. Expansive covered patio with covered parking. 14 x 10 covered shed. On demand hot water heater. Affordable appliances and heating, with a gas stove and fireplace. 2 bedrooms 2 bath rooms. This home is a dream and affordable. In beautiful Skagit county.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Covered patio
• Built 1986

Tags

• ACCESSIBILITY FEATURES
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED PARKING
• ON DEMAND HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 924; Park approved for sale
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in Lazy Acres mobile home park; Senior community; Land lease: $850/month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (paid by park); Public sewer (paid by park); Electric service (PSE); Energy sources: Electric and Natural Gas
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Mobile home remains on site; Very good condition
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation with tie downs
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Located on a cul-de-sac / dead end street; Has a view; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Free‑standing stove heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; Water heater; Double-pane windows; Ceiling fan(s); Drapes; Patio/porch/deck; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.92%
• DSCR: 3.58
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,448
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -36.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9403 Pierce Ln #28	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	13mo	$110,000	$115	83
9392 Thresher Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	5mo	$445,000	$464	78
9403 Pierce Ln #7	0.01mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	22mo	$114,000	$123	77
24892 Minkler Rd #21	0.55mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	12mo	$110,000	$119	62
24892 Minkler Rd #10	0.55mi	2/2.0	960 (+4%)	18mo	$189,900	$198	53
24919 Hoehn Rd #58	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	22mo	$144,000	$156	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $98,400
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.37×
• Total profit: $242,446
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $946

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $994	-5% $970	+0% $946	+5% $922	+10% $898
Rent	-10% $803	-5% $874	+0% $946	+5% $1,017	+10% $1,089
Rate	-1.0pp $981	-0.5pp $964	base $946	+0.5pp $928	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1133 Wicker Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	21d	3	0.30mi
1135 Dean Dr Unit A-5 Sedro-Woolley, WA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,495	$2.39	21d	1	0.34mi
1129 State St Unit 11292 Sedro-Woolley, WA	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,850	$1.76	44d	1	0.50mi
413 Rowland Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	2.0	2.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $70,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $10,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $8,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Lazy Acres offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen
• Both install smart home features — increases appeal and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and privacy

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Both install smart home features — increases appeal and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and privacy ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sedro-Woolley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid