6 Water St · Johnstown, NY 12095

$154,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1890 2,178 sqft lot Est $148k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated home in the heart of Johnstown! This charming 3-bedroom, 1 full bath home offers the perfect blend of modern updates and comfort, featuring new flooring, fresh sheetrock, new kitchen countertops and a beautifully remodeled bathroom. The fully fenced backyard provides great space for entertaining, pets, or relaxing outdoors. Conveniently located close to local shops, schools, and amenities, this property also includes an additional lot on Canal Street (SBL #162.20-7-11), offering extra parking and added potential. Move-in ready and full of value, this is a wonderful opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in a great location!

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• New flooring
• Additional lot

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ADDITIONAL LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking (1 space); Has garage
• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in NY, #2,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities D-.
• Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $155k implies a 1140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,262 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.93%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,308
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Mason St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,422 (-2%)	2mo	$50,119	$35	86
214 N Chase St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,458 (+0%)	3mo	$130,000	$89	78
225 N Chase St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-3%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	76
9 Grove St	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-8%)	8mo	$256,701	$191	70
44 S Perry St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,418 (-2%)	2mo	$68,000	$48	69
19 Matthew St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,529 (+5%)	4mo	$65,000	$43	66
23 Briggs St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-11%)	6mo	$152,000	$117	65
2 S Chase St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+1%)	6mo	$149,900	$102	64
519 N Market St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-11%)	6mo	$94,600	$73	56
32 S Chase St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,270 (-13%)	6mo	$55,000	$43	41
11 Abel Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	6mo	$245,000	$188	39
19 O'neil Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-14%)	6mo	$180,000	$144	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $95,748
• Equity at exit: $139,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $272,994
• Equity at exit: $301,129

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12095

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,482/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $154,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,999 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,999 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,999 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,999 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $154,999 Active
16. 2025-11-19
    historical
17. 2025-10-19
    price $139,900
18. 2025-09-23
    price $149,000
19. 2025-08-17
    price $155,000
20. 2025-06-25
    price $165,000
21. 2025-05-24
    price $172,500
22. 2025-05-12
    listed $179,500 Active
23. 2014-07-29
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,482
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $2,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnstown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 34.89/100
• National rank: #5082
• State rank: #509 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2603

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B Cost of living A Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,013

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.82%
• Current HPI: 297.365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1140.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $154,999 Global MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $139,900 Global MLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $149,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $155,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $165,000 Global MLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $172,500 Global MLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $179,500 Global MLS
• 2014-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,482 · +55.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.