492 3rd Ave · Deer Trail, CO 80105

$90,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 302 Days on market

Built 1917 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own for less in Deer Trail, CO. Local attractions in area include Richmil Ranch Open Space and Nature & Wildlife area. At this price if you blink it will be SOLD. This two-bedroom home has 768 sq. ft. and a unfinished basement. Included is a large lot of 13,499 sq. ft. with possibilities to expand property. Roll up your sleeves and put on your designer touches to make this a dream home. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#337 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Deer Trail School District No. 26J (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #161 of 176 in CO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Deer Trail Elementary School (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #694 of 966 statewide, top 73%, 175 students, 40% FRL); Deer Trail Junior-Senior High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #375 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 150 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 3,927 units permitted in Arapahoe County in 2024 (1,525 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($628 loan paydown + $743 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Arapahoe County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $91k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,904 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.26%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $22,851
• Equity at exit: $30,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $64,264
• Equity at exit: $39,406

Cash invested: $25,424 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80105

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$476
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $90,800

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $370	+0% $345	+5% $319	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $297	+0% $345	+5% $392	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $368	base $345	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,700
• Closing costs: $2,724
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,800 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,800 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,800 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,800 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $90,800 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $90,800 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $90,800 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $90,800 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,800 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,800 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-05-25
    listed $90,800 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Why rent when you can own for less in Deer Trail, CO. Local attractions in area include Richmil Ranch Open Space and Nature & Wildlife area. At this price if you blink it will be SOLD. This two-bedroom home has 768 sq. ft. and a unfinished basement. Included is a large lot of 13,499 sq. ft. with possibilities to expand property. Roll up your sleeves and put on your designer touches to make this a dream home. Buyers check with City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

12. 2026-04-23
    status Pending
13. 2026-04-01
    price $100,700
14. 2026-03-17
    status Active
15. 2026-03-17
    price $121,900
16. 2025-08-18
    historical
17. 2025-08-15
    price $173,800
18. 2025-07-24
    price $174,700
19. 2025-07-09
    price $175,600
20. 2025-06-23
    price $176,500
21. 2025-06-05
    price $177,900
22. 2025-05-14
    price $179,400
23. 2025-04-28
    price $183,100
24. 2025-04-09
    price $187,100
25. 2025-03-24
    price $191,900
26. 2025-03-07
    price $202,300
27. 2025-02-20
    price $215,300
28. 2025-02-05
    price $229,100
29. 2025-01-21
    price $254,800
30. 2025-01-02
    price $289,000
31. 2024-12-13
    listed $339,200 Active
32. 1998-10-15
    soldstatus $58,000
33. 1993-12-13
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,086
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$2,641
• Taxable income: $2,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$684
• After-tax cash flow: $3,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Trail School District No. 26J
• NCES district ID: 0803270
• Math proficiency: 10% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,797
• Composite: 17.08/100
• National rank: #14184
• State rank: #161 of 176 in CO

Livability — Deer Trail

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #22913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Trail, CO
• Population (ZIP): 2,023

Population outlook (Arapahoe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 757,407 people
• By 2030: 819,724 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 940,367 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 1,053,720 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 1,297,693 · +71.3%
• By 2100: 1,412,796 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Arapahoe

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 58.6% · R 38.5% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 12.9pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+8.3 2008: D+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Current HPI: 264.5559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+192.9% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $90,800 IRES
• 2026-04-23 Pending — IRES
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $100,700 IRES
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — IRES
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $121,900 IRES
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $173,800 IRES
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $174,700 IRES
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $175,600 IRES
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $176,500 IRES
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $177,900 IRES
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $179,400 IRES
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $183,100 IRES
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $187,100 IRES
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $191,900 IRES
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $202,300 IRES
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $215,300 IRES
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $229,100 IRES
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $254,800 IRES
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $289,000 IRES
• 2024-12-13 Listed $339,200 IRES
• 1998-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · +34.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.