168 Stacy Springs Cir · Indian Springs, TX 77351

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1980 1.25 ac lot $43/sqft · 70% below area $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Indian Springs original. Call all investors, home flippers or buyers with the future vision. Homestead property with great bones! This main property with solid concrete foundation has all the potential to be one of the most magnificent properties in the neighborhood. The main house has was structured as 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with 2 of those on the 1st floor and the other two upstairs. This is your opportunity to make this what you wish for it to be. The guest house is in need of Rehab. 1 bedroom 1 bath with port-a-cochere and storage. Over an acre of land, partially fenced with circular driveway. One owner, built and used as residence and family resort for decades. Time to bring it back to its glory, your style, fixtures and features for another generation to enjoy making new memories.

Key facts

• Guest house
• Over an acre of land
• Circular driveway

Tags

• SOLID CONCRETE FOUNDATION
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• GUEST HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,068 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.87%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $393,270
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -69.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $8,770
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $43,734
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,101/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $975

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $474	+0% $441	+5% $407	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $380	+0% $441	+5% $501	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $501	-0.5pp $471	base $441	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    price $119,000 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    Indian Springs original. Call all investors, home flippers or buyers with the future vision. Homestead property with great bones! This main property with solid concrete foundation has all the potential to be one of the most magnificent properties in the neighborhood. The main house has was structured as 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with 2 of those on the 1st floor and the other two upstairs. This is your opportunity to make this what you wish for it to be. The guest house is in need of Rehab. 1 bedroom 1 bath with port-a-cochere and storage. Over an acre of land, partially fenced with circular driveway. One owner, built and used as residence and family resort for decades. Time to bring it back to its glory, your style, fixtures and features for another generation to enjoy making new memories.

16. 2026-01-16
    listed $150,000 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    Indian Springs original. Call all investors, home flippers or buyers with the future vision. Homestead property with great bones! This main property with solid concrete foundation has all the potential to be one of the most magnificent properties in the neighborhood. The main house has was structured as 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with 2 of those on the 1st floor and the other two upstairs. This is your opportunity to make this what you wish for it to be. The guest house is in need of Rehab. 1 bedroom 1 bath with port-a-cochere and storage. Over an acre of land, partially fenced with circular driveway. One owner, built and used as residence and family resort for decades. Time to bring it back to its glory, your style, fixtures and features for another generation to enjoy making new memories.

17. 2024-02-06
    historical
18. 2024-01-24
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,101 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,077/yr (+$90/mo · 97.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,101
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $3,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $4,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Indian Springs

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1068
• US rank: #18956

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian Springs, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $70,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,101 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.