1511 Bernard St · Pasadena, TX 77506

$134,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1944 6,926 sqft lot $164/sqft · 13% below area Est $155k · 13% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

Key facts

• Fresh flooring
• Manageable yard
• New paint

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• FRESH FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• MANAGEABLE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-550/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,796 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,921
• List price: $134,999
• Delta: -12.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1323 Richard Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	853 (+4%)	7mo	$182,000	$213	83
1305 Jackson Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	764 (-7%)	2mo	$150,000	$196	78
1313 Glenn Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	800 (-3%)	20mo	$184,990	$231	72
1207 Glenn Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	799 (-3%)	13mo	$185,000	$232	71
508 Garrett St	0.23mi	2/1.0	843 (+2%)	20mo	$165,000	$196	69
1513 Thomas Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	861 (+4%)	6mo	$99,900	$116	68
1511 Harrop Ave	0.35mi	2/1.5	786 (-5%)	11mo	$165,000	$210	64
1215 Bernard St	0.30mi	2/1.0	800 (-3%)	21mo	$130,000	$163	64
1414 Polk Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	762 (-8%)	18mo	$120,000	$157	63
1204 Glenn Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	770 (-7%)	22mo	$179,990	$234	58
810 Thomas Ave	0.73mi	1/0.5 (-1)	864 (+5%)	11mo	$119,990	$139	42
2314 Thomas Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	928 (+13%)	9mo	$179,998	$194	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-24,780
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-25,278
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77506

• Home prices YoY: -15.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $126,903

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1744 Jenkins Rd Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,365	$1.69	5d	1	0.85mi
1750 Jenkins Rd Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$1,135	$1.23	44d	1	0.86mi
1034 W Village Ct Unit C Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$945	$1.29	44d	1	0.87mi
1125 Ann Pasadena, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$995	$1.54	44d	1	1.11mi
1129 Witter St Pasadena, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$1,075	$1.24	44d	1	1.12mi
1413 George St Pasadena, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,695	$1.70	5d	1	1.22mi
910 Main St Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$925	$1.30	44d	2	1.23mi
2401 Southmore Ave Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,078	$1.29	3d	4	1.30mi
1007 Houston Ave Pasadena, TX	1.0	1.0	539	$870	$1.61	44d	1	1.33mi
1000 Curtis Ave Pasadena, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,274	$1.71	5d	14	1.33mi
727 S Richey St Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	1.41mi
707 Preston Ave Pasadena, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$775	$1.18	44d	1	1.42mi
707 Preston Ave Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	965	$949	$0.98	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,999 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,999 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,999 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,999 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,999 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,999 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,999 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,999 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,999 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,999 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,999 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,999 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,999 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    price $139,999 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

15. 2026-03-09
    price $145,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

16. 2026-02-18
    price $150,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

17. 2026-02-09
    price $155,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

18. 2026-01-30
    listed $165,000 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home that’s completely move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find fresh flooring, new paint, and modern light fixtures throughout, creating a bright and comfortable living space. The kitchen has been nicely refreshed and offers a simple, functional layout perfect for everyday living. Outside, the property features a manageable yard with room to relax or entertain. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a low-maintenance home in a convenient location, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, don’t miss this chance.

19. 1988-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• City population: 109,190
• Population (ZIP): 35,243

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 36% White 9% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 77%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 69%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.82%
• Current HPI: 315.9695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $139,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 1988-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · -20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.