15013 Reyes Rd · Fort Worth, TX 76052

$272,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 Poor condition 4,617 sqft lot Est $294k · 7% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lance Thompson El (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 825 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,609 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,661
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 Blazin Bronco Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$264,999	$183	91
15024 Reyes Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$279,999	$214	83
14928 Reyes Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$263,999	$201	82
1353 Blazin Bronco Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$293,184	$224	75
15200 Mariachi Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+4%)	1mo	$278,999	$183	75
1337 Blazin Bronco Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	3mo	$246,999	$188	74
1348 Blazin Bronco Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$267,999	$206	69
1373 Blazin Bronco Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$279,999	$215	66
15017 Santoscoy St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+11%)	1mo	$310,990	$191	63
15033 Santoscoy St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+11%)	1mo	$309,990	$190	62
15048 Santoscoy St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+11%)	2mo	$312,990	$192	59
800 Amberwood Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-7%)	2mo	$290,000	$214	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-55,710
• Equity at exit: $40,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-74,700
• Equity at exit: $23,604

Cash invested: $76,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76052

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $256,688

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,250
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15016 Reyes Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,099	$1.44	1d	1	0.02mi
14933 Tejano St Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	21d	1	0.10mi
15021 Red Sands Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,045	$1.56	44d	1	0.23mi
15133 Hacienda Post Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,999	$1.54	22d	1	0.26mi
15024 Red Sands Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1725	$2,200	$1.28	13d	1	0.26mi
15241 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	7d	1	0.29mi
15245 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	7d	1	0.30mi
15249 Rangeland Rd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	7d	1	0.30mi
15240 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	7d	1	0.30mi
15229 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,049	$1.41	44d	1	0.31mi
1349 Buckaroo Blvd Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.31mi
15244 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,119	$1.39	7d	1	0.31mi
15248 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,059	$1.42	7d	1	0.32mi
15241 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	44d	1	0.32mi
1304 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	7d	1	0.33mi
15245 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	44d	1	0.33mi
15249 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	24d	1	0.34mi
15249 Grappling Irons Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	44d	1	0.34mi
1312 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	15d	1	0.34mi
1316 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,069	$1.36	5d	1	0.34mi
1320 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	15d	1	0.35mi
1324 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	7d	1	0.36mi
1324 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,249	$1.31	5d	1	0.36mi
1328 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,099	$1.45	44d	1	0.36mi
1340 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	24d	1	0.38mi
1340 Amapola Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,089	$1.43	44d	1	0.38mi
952 Dustwood Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,470	$1.34	24d	1	0.49mi
1413 Mustang Canyon Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,125	$1.22	4d	1	0.74mi
14845 Gilley Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,395	$1.30	44d	1	0.75mi
652 Ridgeback Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	0.77mi
14805 Gilley Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1874	$2,400	$1.28	24d	1	0.81mi
14353 Snaffle Bit Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$1,919	$1.15	44d	1	0.82mi
565 Pueblo Bonito Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,200	$1.37	19d	1	0.93mi
1352 Barrel Run Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,055	$1.15	4d	1	0.94mi
14825 Dusty Boot Trl Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,195	$1.37	44d	1	0.94mi
1257 Barrel Run Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	44d	1	0.97mi
14525 Bootes Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,300	$1.39	2d	1	1.03mi
14144 Rabbit Brush Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	1.04mi
14144 Rabbit Brush Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,299	$1.24	11d	1	1.04mi
14420 Bootes Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	19d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $272,999
3. 2026-04-07
   price $273,999
4. 2026-03-10
   listed $278,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$6,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This single-family home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, foundation, HVAC, and interior systems. Significant structural and aesthetic improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear.
• Major foundation — Visible cracks and wear.
• Major HVAC/air conditioning — No visible systems, likely in poor condition.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible walls or paint, likely in poor condition.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, likely in poor condition.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen, likely in poor condition.
• Major windows — No visible windows, likely in poor condition.
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping, likely in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair and replacement — Critical to prevent water damage and improve the home's appearance.
• Both exterior siding repair and repainting — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity.
• Both foundation repair — Prevents further structural damage and improves safety.
• Both HVAC/air conditioning replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Improves the home's appearance and value.
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both window replacement — Improves energy efficiency and safety.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · Visible cracks and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/air conditioning · No visible systems, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible walls or paint, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping, likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair and replacement — Critical to prevent water damage and improve the home's appearance. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair and repainting — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity. ↑
• Both foundation repair — Prevents further structural damage and improves safety. ↑
• Both HVAC/air conditioning replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Improves the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Improves functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both window replacement — Improves energy efficiency and safety. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,249
• Household income: $143,555
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 358.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.77%
• Current HPI: 235.7417
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $272,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $273,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $278,999 NTREIS