404 Blayton St · Troy, TX 76579

$219,119

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2009 8,668 sqft lot $132/sqft · 9% below area Est $241k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Spacious living room
• 8,668 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• TROY I S D SCHOOL DISTRICT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SPLIT BEDROOM ARRANGEMENT
• PRIVATE MASTER BEDROOM BATH
• NEW GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edna Bigham Mays El (421 students, 63% FRL); Raymond Mays Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 382 students, 52% FRL); Troy H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 487 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $219k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,360 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,851
• List price: $219,119
• Delta: -9.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Blayton St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-1%)	7mo	$295,000	$179	84
401 Kayla St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-1%)	4mo	$236,500	$144	81
506 Coby Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,601 (-3%)	2mo	$240,000	$150	76
126 University Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,662 (+0%)	7mo	$244,900	$147	75
304 Kylar St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-9%)	8mo	$244,900	$162	70
205 S College St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-5%)	3mo	$210,000	$134	65
409 Blayton St	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-15%)	3mo	$236,000	$167	65
500 Oxford Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-4%)	7mo	$239,000	$151	59
448 Oxford Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (+4%)	4mo	$257,000	$149	58
960 Chambray Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,603 (-3%)	10mo	$235,000	$147	53
209 State Loop	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,841 (+11%)	4mo	$259,900	$141	52
301 State Loop	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (-13%)	6mo	$239,500	$166	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-42,637
• Equity at exit: $32,671

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,153
• Equity at exit: $18,945

Cash invested: $61,353 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76579

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,149
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,852/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $199,184

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-51	+0% $-113	+5% $-175	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-185	+0% $-113	+5% $-40	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-57	base $-113	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,780
• Closing costs: $6,574
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Kylar St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,795	$1.09	45d	1	0.09mi
1005 Leah Dr Unit B Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.23mi
1104 Leah Dr Unit A Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,695	$1.31	15d	1	0.26mi
522 Campus St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,525	$1.27	45d	1	0.27mi
618 Campus St Unit 1 Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,500	$1.28	15d	1	0.31mi
600 Goates Rd Troy, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,765	$1.15	45d	1	0.67mi
205 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	23d	1	0.97mi
206 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	23d	1	0.99mi
203 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	15d	1	0.99mi
204b Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	15d	1	1.00mi
206 Sparrow Cv Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	15d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,119 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,119 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,119 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,119 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $219,119 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   price $219,119 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

7. 2026-04-30
   price $222,900 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

8. 2026-04-24
   status Active 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

9. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

10. 2026-04-15
    price $239,500 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

11. 2026-03-25
    listed $249,250 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Charming home located in the Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen. Split bedroom arrangement offering secluded private master bedroom/bath, with 3 bedrooms and full bath. Beautiful new counter tops installed 3-25-2026 in kitchen. PLUS seller is offering a $6000.00 allowance for painting or updating, with acceptable offer. This home won't last long. Don't miss this opportunity.

12. 2015-08-03
    soldstatus
13. 2015-07-31
    soldstatus 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Charming home located in the acclaimed Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please your pickiest buyer. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen which allows you to interact with family and guests. The backyard has been well maintained and provides a great place to entertain guest as well. There is also a portable shed to keep lawn tools in to create that much needed space in the garage. Please provide 24 hour showing notice if possible to listing agent.

14. 2015-07-24
    soldstatus $125,000
15. 2015-06-15
    listed $124,995 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Charming home located in the acclaimed Troy I. S. D. school district. This 4 Bedroom and 2 Bath home is sure to please your pickiest buyer. The spacious living room is open to the kitchen which allows you to interact with family and guests. The backyard has been well maintained and provides a great place to entertain guest as well. There is also a portable shed to keep lawn tools in to create that much needed space in the garage. Please provide 24 hour showing notice if possible to listing agent.

16. 2015-06-11
    listed $124,995
17. 2009-05-14
    listed $113,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,852 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,010 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,274
• − Property taxes: −$3,852
• − Insurance: −$1,096
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,374
• Taxable loss: −$5,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,227
• After-tax cash flow: $-127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,586
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4110
• State rank: #257 of 826 in TX

Livability — Troy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #6921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 5,448
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,448
• Household income: $85,480
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.05%
• Current HPI: 183.9791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $219,119 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $222,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $239,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $249,250 CTXMLS
• 2015-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-31 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-07-24 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2015-06-15 Listed $124,995 Unlock MLS
• 2015-06-11 Listed $124,995 CTXMLS
• 2009-05-14 Listed $113,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,852 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.