12813 Tahiska Ln · Newport News, VA 23602

$230,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,150 sqft · Townhouse public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $196k · 18% over $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 2 full bath townhome located in the heart of Newport News. This move-in ready home features fresh paint throughout, brand new flooring, and a newly renovated kitchen. Convenient to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• MOVE-IN READY
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Denbrook Station Assoc. Inc.); HOA/POA fees $67 monthly; Community maintenance includes ground maintenance and playgrounds

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned off-street parking space
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Attached townhouse; 2 stories; Slab foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard fenced with wood fence; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: No bedroom and full bathroom on first floor; Total rooms: 5; Includes a breakfast area and a utility closet
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with auxiliary (heat pump w/a); Central air
• Interior features: Cable hookup; Ceiling fan; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kiln Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 618 students, 93% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $230k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,657 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12791 Tahiska Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,150 (0%)	2mo	$145,000	$126	97
12813 Tahiska Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	97
12773 Woodside Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,150 (0%)	4mo	$195,000	$170	94
12734 Woodside Ln	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$224,900	$192	91
1159 Old Denbigh Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+0%)	6mo	$200,000	$174	83
43 Otsego Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,104 (-4%)	5mo	$200,000	$181	79
1035 Old Denbigh Blvd	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,273 (+11%)	3mo	$220,000	$173	74
1 Oneonta Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$198,500	$155	73
15 Otsego Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$217,500	$170	67
12760 St James Pl Unit A	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	1mo	$147,000	$146	57
12762 Saint James Pl Unit C	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	2mo	$121,500	$120	56
12757 Saint James Pl Unit F	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (-12%)	1mo	$147,000	$146	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,488
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,573
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23602

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,205/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $213,407

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Betty Lee Pl Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,495	$1.50	23d	1	0.10mi
13 Sally Ann Pl Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,150	$1.87	3d	1	0.12mi
55 Oneonta Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,750	$1.52	23d	1	0.17mi
15 Otsego Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,900	$1.48	43d	1	0.24mi
12750 Saint George St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,300	$0.96	7d	1	0.43mi
2055 Stanford Ln Unit 00 2055332 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,120	$2.25	23d	1	0.57mi
1 Cedarwood Way Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,711	$1.63	43d	1	0.80mi
804 Newday Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	14d	1	0.89mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 510305 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,699	$1.51	3d	1	0.92mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 601303 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,649	$1.47	23d	1	0.92mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 621307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,499	$1.33	43d	1	0.92mi
650 Stoney Creek Ln Unit 00 520307 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,614	$1.44	43d	1	0.92mi
12851 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	43d	1	0.93mi
218 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	993	$2,150	$2.17	23d	1	0.95mi
12663 Daybreak Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,500	$1.59	43d	1	0.98mi
104 Landmark Ct Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,802	$1.77	2d	1	0.98mi
163 Windsor Castle Dr Unit B Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1369	$1,750	$1.28	21d	1	1.00mi
153 Windsor Castle Dr Unit A Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	985	$1,450	$1.47	10d	1	1.03mi
305 Mona Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.07mi
108 Tazewell Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	43d	1	1.33mi
722 Emerald Ct Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1488	$2,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.46mi
713 Emerald Ct Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1455	$2,300	$1.58	43d	1	1.47mi
100 Springhouse Way Newport News, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,589	$2.35	1d	47	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-05
   status Active
4. 2026-02-18
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-21
   listed $230,000 Active
6. 1986-04-16
   soldstatus $58,700
7. 1982-11-01
   soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,205 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,205
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,229
• After-tax cash flow: $102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 42,265
• Household income: $79,475
• Rent vs Own: 46.7% rent · 53.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.28%
• Current HPI: 283.0889
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.22%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+374.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-02-18 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $230,000 REINMLS
• 1986-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $58,700 Public Records
• 1982-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,205 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.