203 SW 2nd Street St · Winnebago, MN 56098

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Other public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1975 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this move-in-ready 3-bedroom rambler perfectly situated on a spacious half-acre lot with endless possibilities including relaxing, entertaining, playing and gardening. Inside you will find fresh paint throughout, beautiful finished hardwood floors in the kitchen and dining area and brand-new carpet in the living room. The basement is partially finished and provides a room with an egress window for a potential 4th bedroom. The homes thoughtful updates are perfectly complemented by fresh landscaping. This home also provides the convenience of a double attached garage perfect for vehicles, storage or a workshop!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($859/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#162 in MN, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Earth Area Public School (town): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #245 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Faribault County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Faribault County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $89,693
• Equity at exit: $145,153

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.44×
• Total profit: $258,911
• Equity at exit: $304,978

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56098

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $120	+0% $72	+5% $23	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $8	+0% $72	+5% $135	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $115	base $72	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 4th St NW Winnebago, MN	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical
3. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-01
   historical
5. 2025-11-07
   status Pending
6. 2025-08-24
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-07-31
   status Active
8. 2025-07-23
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-06-24
   listed $169,900 Active
10. 2025-06-13
    historical $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$468
• After-tax cash flow: $1,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Earth Area Public School
• NCES district ID: 2700130
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,434
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6095
• State rank: #245 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winnebago

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnebago, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,946

Population outlook (Faribault County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,474 people
• By 2030: 13,112 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 12,454 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,973 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 11,565 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 10,844 · -19.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Faribault

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.4% · R 67.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -5.6pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.36%
• Current HPI: 281.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — RASM
• 2026-04-16 Delisted — RASM
• 2026-03-02 Pending — RASM
• 2026-03-01 Delisted — RASM
• 2025-11-07 Pending — RASM
• 2025-08-24 Contingent — RASM
• 2025-07-31 Relisted — RASM
• 2025-07-23 Contingent — RASM
• 2025-06-24 Listed $169,900 RASM
• 2025-06-13 Coming Soon $169,900 RASM

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,768 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.