16 Bransford St · Patchogue, NY 11772

$290,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,131 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1892 0.36 ac lot Est $559k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity on a 0.36-acre parcel in the Village of Patchogue. Property is zoned E-Industrial and features a pre-existing, non-conforming residential structure. Sale is as-is. Drive-by only—no access to the property without prior authorization. Buyers are responsible for verifying all zoning, use, and development possibilities. Seller makes no representations or warranties. 2025 Village Taxes: $2,214.76

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1892
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in NY, #1,800 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: River Elementary School (math 75%, 300 students, 47% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $290,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $558,714
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Mulford St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,255 (+11%)	10mo	$425,000	$339	56
37 Brightwood St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-3%)	9mo	$645,000	$586	55
77 N Summit Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-3%)	1mo	$605,000	$550	51
3 Fordham St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+6%)	13mo	$625,000	$521	51
30 Thorburn Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,199 (+6%)	6mo	$485,000	$405	50
5 Richlee St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,288 (+14%)	0mo	$575,000	$446	49
29 Campbell St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,236 (+9%)	17mo	$498,780	$404	45
46 Patchogue St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+12%)	6mo	$610,000	$480	45
9 Richlee St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+10%)	17mo	$695,000	$560	42
564 S Ocean Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+6%)	19mo	$593,010	$494	37
533 S Ocean Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-12%)	12mo	$530,000	$530	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,233
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $33,079
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$570 /mo · $6,837/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $363	+0% $281	+5% $199	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $156	+0% $281	+5% $405	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $354	base $281	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 River Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	687	$2,875	$4.18	1d	1	0.10mi
80 Division St Unit 2c Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$3,200	$3.72	44d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 302 Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	21d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	25d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 3G Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1182	$3,700	$3.13	24d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 2G Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	1182	$3,400	$2.88	21d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 1C Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$2,800	$3.26	20d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$3,200	$3.72	1d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 2B Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	44d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 204 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$2,800	$3.26	44d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 3A Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1468	$3,850	$2.62	44d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 3d Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	860	$3,600	$4.19	44d	1	0.30mi
80 Division St Unit 3B Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	1d	1	0.30mi
104 River Ave Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,100	$2.82	1d	1	0.33mi
39 Laurel St Patchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	25d	1	0.44mi
17 Mott St Patchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1326	$3,850	$2.90	1d	1	0.65mi
90 E Main St Unit 2 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	44d	1	0.69mi
1 Village Green Way Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$3,974	$4.19	1d	7	0.69mi
22 Jennings Ave Unit B Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	919	$3,000	$3.26	1d	1	0.76mi
34 Union Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	5d	1	0.77mi
99 Waverly Ave Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$3,710	$4.00	1d	9	0.80mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 8 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$2,895	$3.97	44d	1	0.87mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 7 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	722	$2,795	$3.87	44d	1	0.87mi
143 N Summit Ave Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$4,800	$3.43	1d	1	0.90mi
177 Waverly Ave Unit Second Floor Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	835	$2,995	$3.59	6d	1	1.02mi
425 Terrace Rd Unit T11425 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	890	$2,985	$3.35	44d	1	1.24mi
323 Terrace Rd Unit T08-323 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	790	$2,510	$3.18	22d	1	1.24mi
254 Terrace Rd Unit T6-254 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	775	$3,110	$4.01	44d	1	1.25mi
417 Terrace Rd Unit T10417 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	890	$2,985	$3.35	44d	1	1.25mi
512 Terrace Rd Unit T13-512 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	775	$2,500	$3.23	22d	1	1.27mi
141 Terrace Rd Unit T03-141 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	790	$2,510	$3.18	22d	1	1.27mi
830 Terrace Rd Unit I8-830 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	715	$2,465	$3.45	22d	1	1.28mi
305 Terrace Rd Unit T7305 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	890	$2,985	$3.35	44d	1	1.29mi
610 Imperial Way Unit I6610 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	910	$3,070	$3.37	44d	1	1.29mi
208 Terrace Rd Unit T04208 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	890	$2,995	$3.37	44d	1	1.30mi
821 Imperial Way Unit I8-821 Bayport, NY	1.0	1.0	715	$2,455	$3.43	22d	1	1.31mi
505 Imperial Way Unit I5505 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	910	$3,070	$3.37	22d	1	1.31mi
100 Terrace Rd Bayport, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$3,110	$3.92	1d	1	1.32mi
100 Imperial Way Unit I3-306 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	910	$3,070	$3.37	44d	1	1.33mi
226 Imperial Way Unit I2226 Bayport, NY	2.0	1.0	910	$3,070	$3.37	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-30
   listed $290,000 Active
3. 2012-10-25
   historical
4. 2012-02-14
   listed $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,837 · $570/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,837 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$6,837
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,028
• − Management: −$3,028
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$1,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $3,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Patchogue

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1800

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,023
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+81.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-14 Listed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,837 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.