17518 Majestic Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77379

$289,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1980 0.25 ac lot $126/sqft · 14% below area Est $334k · 14% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning 2-story home featuring beautiful wood and tile flooring throughout! This spacious open-concept layout is perfect for modern living and entertaining. Thoughtfully upgraded and meticulously maintained, this home shines with pride of ownership. Located in a well-established neighborhood close to shopping, dining, and schools. Enjoy the oversized backyard with plenty of space. Convenient mudroom with half bath and shower, and a large utility room with built-in storage add extra functionality. Move-in ready—don’t miss this exceptional opportunity!

Key facts

• Existing hot tub
• Oversized backyard
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• WOOD AND TILE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• EXISTING HOT TUB
• MUDROOM WITH HALF BATH
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,296; Lot about 0.2537 acres
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $385; Association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Subdivision setting; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level); Three additional bedrooms (second level); Bedroom dimensions: 13 x 11, 13 x 11, 13 x 13, 16 x 13
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas and wood-burning fireplace; Double vanity
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (other level) — 11 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ehrhardt El (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 813 students, 65% FRL); Kleb Int (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,434 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $289k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,442 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.02%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,467
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17407 Majestic Forest Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,439 (+6%)	5mo	$327,000	$134	79
17506 Rustington Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,434 (+6%)	3mo	$367,999	$151	76
6214 Oak Masters Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,380 (+4%)	5mo	$355,000	$149	73
17402 Telegraph Creek Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,210 (-4%)	6mo	$329,000	$149	70
6902 Stoney River Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,190 (-5%)	2mo	$359,000	$164	68
6807 River Mill Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,188 (-5%)	7mo	$240,000	$110	67
17406 Telegraph Creek Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,151 (-6%)	5mo	$310,000	$144	67
7023 Rosebrook Cir	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,312 (+1%)	3mo	$265,000	$115	67
17647 Seven Pines Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,451 (+7%)	6mo	$280,000	$114	63
7010 River Mill Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,512 (+9%)	1mo	$325,000	$129	56
6018 Spring Creek Grove Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,577 (+12%)	4mo	$374,900	$145	56
17610 Mill Springs Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,954 (-15%)	7mo	$250,000	$128	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,955
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-110,552
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77379

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$494 /mo · $5,933/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $241,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-189	+0% $-271	+5% $-353	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-365	+0% $-271	+5% $-176	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-197	base $-271	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-422

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6511 Misty Spring Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	2686	$2,266	$0.84	1d	1	0.09mi
6415 Willow Pine Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.32mi
17743 Seven Pines Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,795	$1.23	9d	1	0.46mi
6934 Jenny Lake Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	3054	$3,370	$1.10	6d	1	0.86mi
17111 Oakwood Chase Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,800	$1.06	26d	1	0.87mi
16415 Lapis River Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,500	$0.89	45d	1	1.03mi
7042 Bristol Memorial Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,650	$1.08	14d	1	1.04mi
7015 Windy Run Ct Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$5,500	$2.52	45d	1	1.05mi
7410 Songwind Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$1,995	$1.06	24d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $289,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $299,000 569-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $319,900 Active 569-char remark
17. 2026-03-09
    soldstatus
18. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus
19. 1993-07-21
    soldstatus $80,516

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,933 · $494/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,933 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$5,933
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$8,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,973
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,190
• Household income: $107,486
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2220.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.58%
• Current HPI: 218.9608
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+258.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,516 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,933 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.