615 Hillcrest St · Charlotte, NC 28206

$239,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1992 0.32 ac lot Est $306k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Incredibly charming single story home for sale in a fast growing area!! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home is ready for a new owner and has so much to offer. The kitchen features updated euro style cabinetry, a gas cooktop, LVP flooring, a SS refrigerator, and a quaint breakfast nook. Each bedroom is generously sized and the cathedral ceiling in the living room creates a warm and open space. The home also features a large deck that overlooks a beautiful large and flat back yard. The detached garage was used as a cabinetry shop and provides endless opportunities for storage or hobbies. Need more space? Make your way upstairs to the finished loft above the garage. With so much to offer this home will

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Ss refrigerator
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• UPDATED EURO STYLE CABINETRY
• GAS COOKTOP
• LVP FLOORING
• SS REFRIGERATOR
• QUAINT BREAKFAST NOOK
• CATHEDRAL CEILING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($38/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Charlotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#26 in NC, #2,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #85 of 178 in NC (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,969 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (5,377 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecklenburg County population projected at +53% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,215 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,760
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
631 W Craighead Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,019 (-9%)	5mo	$280,000	$275	64
830 Log Cabin Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,125 (+0%)	8mo	$266,000	$236	59
3801 Sofley Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	953 (-15%)	9mo	$260,000	$273	54
4101 Cushman St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-11%)	18mo	$300,000	$300	50
4808 Hidden Valley Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+3%)	23mo	$258,000	$224	43
823 Ridgedale Ct	0.38mi	3/1.0	972 (-13%)	22mo	$278,000	$286	41
4601 Hidden Valley Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	24mo	$246,500	$205	34
336 Drury Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (+12%)	22mo	$275,000	$219	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-44,164
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-60,002
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28206

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,759/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $71	+0% $3	+5% $-64	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-72	+0% $3	+5% $78	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $64	base $3	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4333 Cinderella Rd Charlotte, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	759	$1,425	$1.88	24d	1	0.43mi
806 W Sugar Creek Rd Charlotte, NC	4.0	2.0	1220	$1,500	$1.23	11d	1	0.46mi
4300 Penny Way Charlotte, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1014	$1,400	$1.38	2d	1	0.53mi
307 Drury Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	2.5	1346	$1,800	$1.34	24d	1	0.59mi
337 Wellingford St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0	843	$1,700	$2.02	24d	1	0.70mi
229 Hilo Dr Charlotte, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,475	$1.72	24d	1	0.73mi
3934 Raleigh St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$3,105	$3.24	8d	103	0.88mi
601 Kentbrook Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,685	$1.69	2d	1	0.89mi
614 Kentbrook Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,600	$1.45	5d	1	0.91mi
1030 Stitch Bend Way Charlotte, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,379	$2.90	2d	29	0.99mi
815 Echo Glen Rd Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.5	1125	$1,495	$1.33	15d	1	0.99mi
4418 Oat Grass Cir Charlotte, NC	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1665	$3,081	$1.85	3d	84	1.00mi
3750 Philemon Ave Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,380	$2.62	3d	24	1.07mi
1841 Prospect Dr Charlotte, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,604	$1.75	8d	25	1.09mi
110 E 36th St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	883	$3,195	$3.62	2d	51	1.10mi
5401 Snow White Ln Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0	1264	$1,670	$1.32	4d	1	1.15mi
411 Lambeth Dr Charlotte, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	826	$1,675	$2.03	14d	1	1.15mi
2816 Dalecrest Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	2.0	1223	$3,100	$2.53	24d	1	1.16mi
4325 Raleigh St Charlotte, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,920	$1.91	5d	25	1.16mi
3035 N Tryon St Charlotte, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,661	$2.75	2d	342	1.18mi
4736 Monmouth Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	24d	1	1.18mi
3500 Philemon Ave Charlotte, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,377	$3.04	2d	117	1.19mi
3537 Warp St Charlotte, NC	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,800	$1.68	24d	1	1.23mi
3531 Warp St Charlotte, NC	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,750	$1.74	5d	1	1.23mi
2800 Oneida Rd Charlotte, NC	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,725	$1.47	16d	1	1.23mi
4375 Raleigh St Charlotte, NC	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1418	$2,595	$1.83	3d	10	1.23mi
300 E 36th St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–2.5	1040	$3,168	$3.05	2d	31	1.24mi
908 Bilmark Ave Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,625	$1.41	24d	1	1.25mi
629 Raphael Pl Charlotte, NC	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,750	$1.64	24d	1	1.25mi
5414 Princess St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.5	1233	$1,825	$1.48	22d	1	1.29mi
423 E 36th St Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$3,012	$3.30	3d	15	1.30mi
424 E 36th St Charlotte, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,316	$2.52	3d	36	1.30mi
2019 Aberdale Farm Ln Charlotte, NC	2.0–4.0	2.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	5d	1	1.31mi
1300 Hunter Oaks Ln Charlotte, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	5d	6	1.32mi
1305 Hunter Oaks Ln Charlotte, NC	2.0	2.0	996	$1,300	$1.31	24d	1	1.32mi
1305 Hunter Oaks Ln Unit 1303-01 Charlotte, NC	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	5d	1	1.32mi
1305 Hunter Oaks Ln Unit 1302-15 Charlotte, NC	2.0	2.0	996	$1,300	$1.31	5d	1	1.32mi
1400 Ventura Way Dr Charlotte, NC	3.0	1.0–1.5	650	$1,513	$2.33	2d	18	1.33mi
1305 Hunter Oaks Ln Unit 115 Charlotte, NC	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	24d	1	1.33mi
2746 Dogwood Ave Charlotte, NC	2.0	1.0	1183	$1,600	$1.35	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,759
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$989
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702970
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,175
• Composite: 38.49/100
• National rank: #4183
• State rank: #85 of 178 in NC

Livability — Charlotte

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #2502

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Charlotte, NC
• County: Mecklenburg County · 1,167,319 people
• City population: 920,422
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 15,375
• Household income: $61,818
• Rent vs Own: 67.1% rent · 32.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1143.0

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,305,740 people
• By 2030: 1,442,752 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 1,722,441 · +31.9%
• By 2050: 1,999,450 · +53.1%
• By 2075: 2,642,495 · +102.4%
• By 2100: 3,106,755 · +137.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 65.6% · R 32.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.5pp toward D · 2008: 24.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+22.5 2008: D+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.97%
• Current HPI: 317.6081
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.79%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $239,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,759 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.