Horizon Plan · Sherman, TX 75090

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 282 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thoughtfully arranged and beautifully functional, the one-story Horizon offers a welcoming layout that brings ease and comfort to everyday living. From the moment you step through the front door, you're greeted by a sense of openness that flows naturally through the home. At the center, a spacious great room connects seamlessly to the dining area and kitchen, making this the perfect place to gather, unwind, or entertain with ease. The kitchen features ample counter space and cabinetry, with a layout that supports everything from quick breakfasts to evening meals with loved ones. A tucked-away tech space near the foyer adds a practical bonus, ideal for remote work, homework, or keeping life organized. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned at the rear of the home, creating a peaceful retreat with a generously sized bedroom and a well-designed bath. Two additional bedrooms are conveniently located, sharing a full bath and offering flexible space for family, guests, or personal pursuits. The dedicated laundry room is centrally placed for added convenience, helping your daily routine run smoothly. Throughout the Horizon, light-filled rooms and smart design elements create an uplifting atmosphere where every square foot works hard and feels just right. Whether you're stepping into homeownership for the first time or seeking a home that's easy to care for and enjoy, the Horizon delivers an ideal blend of livability, efficiency, and style.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Tech space
• Laundry room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• TECH SPACE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,602.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henry W Sory El (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 69% FRL); Piner Middle (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 818 students, 75% FRL); Sherman H S (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,155 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,749 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.89%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,602
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -21.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Catamount Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-12%)	2mo	$252,490	$189	70
3910 Ontario Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-7%)	1mo	$216,359	$153	63
3916 Superior Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-7%)	0mo	$220,999	$157	62
3923 Ontario Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-7%)	1mo	$211,999	$150	62
3915 Ontario Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-7%)	1mo	$211,999	$150	62
3922 Ontario Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	1mo	$222,999	$139	61
3821 Ontario Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-8%)	1mo	$213,999	$153	61
3701 Talisker Blvd	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+12%)	1mo	$304,999	$180	61
3812 Ontario Way	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	2mo	$226,999	$142	61
3911 Ontario Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-8%)	2mo	$212,999	$152	60
3606 S Dakota Dr	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,424 (-6%)	1mo	$200,000	$140	60
3814 Superior Pl	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-8%)	2mo	$208,999	$149	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-101,266
• Equity at exit: $48,399

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-165,773
• Equity at exit: $28,066

Cash invested: $90,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $273,494 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75090

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,702
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,869/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,840

Max offer price $227,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-449	-5% $-561	+0% $-673	+5% $-785	+10% $-897
Rent	-10% $-830	-5% $-752	+0% $-673	+5% $-595	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-510	-0.5pp $-591	base $-673	+0.5pp $-757	+1.0pp $-843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,150
• Closing costs: $9,738
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3804 Malibu Dr Sherman, TX	4.0	3.0	2216	$2,300	$1.04	93d	1	0.08mi
1127 Mesa St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,250	$1.30	70d	1	0.08mi
1108 El Sol Blvd Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,999	$1.16	93d	1	0.12mi
3730 Malibu Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,300	$1.38	70d	1	0.12mi
1205 Morgan Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1775	$1,850	$1.04	70d	1	0.13mi
3717 Malibu Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,900	$1.06	70d	1	0.15mi
3740 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$1,899	$1.08	93d	1	0.15mi
3740 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$1,750	$1.00	70d	1	0.15mi
3716 Paradise Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.5	1756	$1,900	$1.08	93d	1	0.17mi
3825 Cherry Hills Dr Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,100	$1.32	93d	1	0.18mi
3902 Talisker Blvd Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	70d	1	0.21mi
3807 Pontchartrain Pkwy Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,650	$1.17	70d	1	0.48mi
1601 FM1417 Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,449	$1.00	70d	1	0.49mi
3914 Ontario Way Sherman, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	70d	1	0.51mi
3809 Ontario Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	70d	1	0.53mi
2306 San Jacinto Way Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,795	$1.07	70d	1	1.29mi
2017 S Branch St Sherman, TX	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,700	$1.27	93d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $254,990 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $254,990 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $254,990 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $254,990 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $254,990 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $254,990 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $254,990 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $254,990 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 259 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 258 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 257 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 256 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $254,990 Active 255 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 254 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 253 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 252 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 251 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 250 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 249 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 248 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 247 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 246 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 245 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 244 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 243 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 242 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 241 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 240 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 239 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 238 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 235 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 234 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $254,990 Active 232 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 231 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 230 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 229 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 228 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 226 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 225 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 223 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 222 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 221 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 220 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,183
• − Property taxes: −$4,869
• − Insurance: −$1,623
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$9,443
• Taxable loss: −$14,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,380
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,600–$22,800 screening

This Horizon Plan home in Sherman, TX is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Replace or clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Henry W Sory El F TX #1,651/4,322 Nat'l #20,819/41,679 Middle Sherman Middle High Sherman H S F TX #930/1,632 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840080
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,587
• Composite: 28.79/100
• National rank: #6665
• State rank: #546 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Sherman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1027
• US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sherman, TX
• County: Grayson County · 134,540 people
• City population: 54,936
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,594
• Household income: $55,543
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.00%
• Current HPI: 276.5739
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.70%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Listed $269,990 Zillow