1946 9th · Hempstead, TX 77445

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1980 6,098 sqft lot $94/sqft · 23% below area Est $220k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming fixer-upper is located in Hempstead, in northern Waller County. The 1,794-square-foot home sits on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood and includes an additional vacant lot next door. Short walk from Hempstead High School, the property is minutes from the new Hempstead Logistics Park, Prairie View A&M University, and the Daikin Manufacturing Plant in Hockley via US 290. Mature shade trees surround the home, creating a welcoming outdoor setting complemented by a one-car garage and storage building. The living room features a fireplace, built-in storage and ceiling fans throughout the home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also features a bonus room just off the kitchen. The possibilities are endless....Schedule a private showing!

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Storage building
• Spacious corner lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• ADDITIONAL VACANT LOT
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,099 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, schools F.
• Hempstead ISD (town): math 16% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #795 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,561 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,587
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -11.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 11th St	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,253 (+9%)	5mo	$260,000	$115	71
1625 14th St	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,123 (+2%)	7mo	$283,990	$134	69
1825 8th St	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,852 (-11%)	14mo	$350,000	$189	64
2036 2nd St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,878 (-10%)	14mo	$315,000	$168	44
435 Lafayette St	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,824 (-12%)	9mo	$219,900	$121	40
2845 14th St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,764 (-15%)	5mo	$282,400	$160	38
1206 13th St	0.56mi	3/3.0	1,782 (-14%)	20mo	$280,000	$157	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $82,377
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $261,681
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77445

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,013/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $128,561

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-321	+0% $-376	+5% $-431	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-491	-5% $-433	+0% $-376	+5% $-319	+10% $-262
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-326	base $-376	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 9th St Hempstead, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,450	$0.92	5d	1	0.45mi
302 16th St Hempstead, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,450	$1.03	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-05-06
   price $195,000 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Charming fixer-upper is located in Hempstead, in northern Waller County. The 1,794-square-foot home sits on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood and includes an additional vacant lot next door. Short walk from Hempstead High School, the property is minutes from the new Hempstead Logistics Park, Prairie View A&M University, and the Daikin Manufacturing Plant in Hockley via US 290. Mature shade trees surround the home, creating a welcoming outdoor setting complemented by a one-car garage and storage building. The living room features a fireplace, built-in storage and ceiling fans throughout the home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also features a bonus room just off the kitchen. The possibilities are endless....Schedule a private showing!

6. 2026-05-01
   price $220,000 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Charming fixer-upper is located in Hempstead, in northern Waller County. The 1,794-square-foot home sits on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood and includes an additional vacant lot next door. Short walk from Hempstead High School, the property is minutes from the new Hempstead Logistics Park, Prairie View A&M University, and the Daikin Manufacturing Plant in Hockley via US 290. Mature shade trees surround the home, creating a welcoming outdoor setting complemented by a one-car garage and storage building. The living room features a fireplace, built-in storage and ceiling fans throughout the home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also features a bonus room just off the kitchen. The possibilities are endless....Schedule a private showing!

7. 2026-03-26
   listed $225,000 New 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Charming fixer-upper is located in Hempstead, in northern Waller County. The 1,794-square-foot home sits on a spacious corner lot in a well-established neighborhood and includes an additional vacant lot next door. Short walk from Hempstead High School, the property is minutes from the new Hempstead Logistics Park, Prairie View A&M University, and the Daikin Manufacturing Plant in Hockley via US 290. Mature shade trees surround the home, creating a welcoming outdoor setting complemented by a one-car garage and storage building. The living room features a fireplace, built-in storage and ceiling fans throughout the home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also features a bonus room just off the kitchen. The possibilities are endless....Schedule a private showing!

8. 2015-10-21
   soldstatus
9. 2015-10-20
   soldstatus Sold 121-char remark

   Show marketing remark (121 chars)

   Nice brick home on corner lot with large shade trees, fireplace, built in shelving, hardwood flooring, and covered patio.

10. 2015-08-26
    status Pending 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Nice brick home on corner lot with large shade trees, fireplace, built in shelving, hardwood flooring, and covered patio.

11. 2015-07-09
    price $139,000 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Nice brick home on corner lot with large shade trees, fireplace, built in shelving, hardwood flooring, and covered patio.

12. 2015-05-26
    listed $149,000 Active 121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (121 chars)

    Nice brick home on corner lot with large shade trees, fireplace, built in shelving, hardwood flooring, and covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,013 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,013 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,013
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$7,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hempstead ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 14.92/100
• National rank: #9371
• State rank: #795 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hempstead

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #19446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hempstead, TX
• City population: 14,943
• Population (ZIP): 14,943

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 32% Black 31% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.43%
• Current HPI: 359.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $195,000 LERA
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2026-03-26 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2015-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-08-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-09 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-26 Listed $149,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,013 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.