1205 Buffalo Rd · Gilmer, TX 75644

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 379 Days on market

1.05 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this cozy mobile home with a sturdy metal roof, sitting on just over an acre of land! There’s RV hookups, plenty of space to spread out, and lots of opportunity to make it your own. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to live or a solid investment, this one's a great find! Schedule your showing now to make this place yours today!

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• Listed 378 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 379 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 379 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.10%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $57,558
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $165,002
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $118	+0% $91	+5% $64	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $52	+0% $91	+5% $129	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $115	base $91	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 379 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 376 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 375 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 373 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 367 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 364 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 363 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 362 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 361 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 360 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 359 DOM
18. 2025-12-28
    price $95,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Check out this cozy mobile home with a sturdy metal roof, sitting on just over an acre of land! There’s RV hookups, plenty of space to spread out, and lots of opportunity to make it your own. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to live or a solid investment, this one's a great find! Schedule your showing now to make this place yours today!

19. 2025-06-05
    listed $98,500 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Check out this cozy mobile home with a sturdy metal roof, sitting on just over an acre of land! There’s RV hookups, plenty of space to spread out, and lots of opportunity to make it your own. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to live or a solid investment, this one's a great find! Schedule your showing now to make this place yours today!

20. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$103
• After-tax cash flow: $1,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $95,000 GTAR
• 2025-06-05 Listed $98,500 GTAR
• 2022-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $901 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.