1305 Smith Ln · Farmington, NM 87401

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Other

Built 1990 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute updated 3 bed 2 bath Manufacture home! Large, open split floor plan. Beautifully updated kitchen. This home is priced amazing!! Home is not on a permanent foundation. Tenant occupied will need 24 hr notice to show. Owner will consider REC w/ very large down and short term. Please see private remarks. Please schedule on Showingtime

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($233/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Animas Elementary (361 students, 100% FRL); Heights Middle School (718 students, 44% FRL); Piedra Vista High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #68 of 110 statewide, top 62%, 1,578 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $159,829 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,478
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,006
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87401

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $82	+0% $19	+5% $-43	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-44	+0% $19	+5% $83	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $65	base $19	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2625 E 22nd St Farmington, NM	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	46d	1	0.49mi
1066 E Navajo St Farmington, NM	3.0	2.5	1564	$1,800	$1.15	46d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $179,900
2. 2026-05-04
   historical
3. 2022-07-05
   soldstatus 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Super cute updated 3 bed 2 bath Manufacture home! Large, open split floor plan. Beautifully updated kitchen. This home is priced amazing!! Home is not on a permanent foundation. Tenant occupied will need 24 hr notice to show. Owner will consider REC w/ very large down and short term. Please see private remarks. Please schedule on Showingtime

4. 2022-05-18
   listed $115,000 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Super cute updated 3 bed 2 bath Manufacture home! Large, open split floor plan. Beautifully updated kitchen. This home is priced amazing!! Home is not on a permanent foundation. Tenant occupied will need 24 hr notice to show. Owner will consider REC w/ very large down and short term. Please see private remarks. Please schedule on Showingtime

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$671
• After-tax cash flow: $904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500990
• Math proficiency: 23% —
• Reading proficiency: 43% —
• Median HH income: $51,365
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #11178
• State rank: #23 of 95 in NM

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #11926

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, NM
• County: San Juan County · 45,229 people
• City population: 45,229
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• Population (ZIP): 45,229
• Household income: $61,886
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Native American 32% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.62%
• Current HPI: 170.162
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Farmington, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Delisted — SJCMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $179,900 SJCMLS
• 2022-07-05 Sold (MLS) — SJCMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listed $115,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

-26.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6 · -95.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.