4291 Junco Rd · Freeland, WA 98253

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1982 3.99 ac lot $214/sqft · 46% below area Est $600k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking with work boots on at Junco Road. Set on just shy of 4 usable acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,520 square feet of potential for investors, flippers, or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and create something special. Tucked into a peaceful setting with room to roam, the property delivers the kind of space that’s getting harder to find on Whidbey Island. The home is ready for updates and vision, making it an ideal fixer-upper with strong upside potential. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, create a rental investment, or design your own country retreat, the possibilities here stretch as wide as the acreage itself. Existing floor pl

Key facts

• Privacy
• Nearly 4-acre parcel
• Room for gardens

Tags

• NEARLY 4-ACRE PARCEL
• PRIVACY
• ROOM FOR GARDENS
• ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 3.99 acres; Lot includes outbuildings and shop; lot is listed as secluded and having value in land
• Financial info: Cash offers only
• HOA & community: Part of Twin View Estates (community water)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Community water (Twin View Estates Community); Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence, two stories; Main entry on the main level; Built on lot; Residential rural zoning; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built in 1982 (effective year); Wood construction; Tile roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Outbuildings and shop on site; Secluded setting with value in the land; Brush, garden space, and wooded vegetation; Level topography; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on lower level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level); Includes 1 bathtub and 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No built-in cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.9% in Freeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#367 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Coupeville School District (rural): math 54% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #40 of 291 in WA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coupeville Elementary School (491 students, 47% FRL); Coupeville Middle School (216 students, 38% FRL); Coupeville High School (289 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $325,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.94%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $599,791
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -45.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4291 Junco Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	0mo	$307,000	$202	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $111,931
• Equity at exit: $157,040

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $298,571
• Equity at exit: $250,862

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98253

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,179/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,770

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,165	-5% $1,073	+0% $981	+5% $889	+10% $797
Rent	-10% $664	-5% $823	+0% $981	+5% $1,140	+10% $1,298
Rate	-1.0pp $1,145	-0.5pp $1,064	base $981	+0.5pp $897	+1.0pp $811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $325,000 Active
3. 1993-05-01
   soldstatus $155,000
4. 1980-11-01
   soldstatus $17,500
5. 1979-03-01
   soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,179 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,179 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,179
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,851
• − Management: −$3,851
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $6,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $10,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coupeville School District
• NCES district ID: 5301800
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,404
• Composite: 56.12/100
• National rank: #2536
• State rank: #40 of 291 in WA

Livability — Freeland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #13986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,531
• Population (ZIP): 2,141

Population outlook (Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,019 people
• By 2030: 81,329 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 78,552 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 77,042 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 80,799 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 84,451 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Island

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 56.8% · R 40.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.59%
• Current HPI: 227.7902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2174.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $307,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $325,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,179 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.