4923 Mitchell Loop Rd · Dunes City, OR 97439

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1947 0.50 ac lot $169/sqft · 34% below area Est $265k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks with this classic fixer-upper full of potential and ready for your vision. Situated on a generously sized lot on the desirable Mitchell Loop, this property offers an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity! With solid bones, new hardi plank siding, and a functional layout, the foundation is set for a stunning transformation. Inside, the spacious living area features large windows that bring in abundant natural light, a wood burning stove, plumbing & electrical laid out in the floor and walls. The floor plan provides flexibility for you to decide how you want it, whether you’re dreaming of an open-concept design, want to add a bedroom or change the kitchen layout. Outside, the expansive yard offers endless possibilities for landscaping, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor retreat. The footprint is set for the garage to be built.  The lot size provides space to truly enhance the property. This home is more than a project — it’s an opportunity to create something special with the gutting and cleanup already done, all that's needed is your imagination. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and shopping, the long-term potential is undeniable. Bring your creativity and unlock the value waiting here!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Generously sized lot
• Spacious living area

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• NEW HARDI PLANK SIDING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE WINDOWS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.3% in Dunes City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#216 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,953
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -33.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $112,977
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.50×
• Total profit: $318,707
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $327	+0% $278	+5% $228	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $209	+0% $278	+5% $347	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $322	base $278	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $175,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $190,000 1342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1342 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this classic fixer-upper full of potential and ready for your vision. Situated on a generously sized lot on the desirable Mitchell Loop, this property offers an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity! With solid bones, new hardi plank siding, and a functional layout, the foundation is set for a stunning transformation. Inside, the spacious living area features large windows that bring in abundant natural light, a wood burning stove, plumbing & electrical laid out in the floor and walls. The floor plan provides flexibility for you to decide how you want it, whether you’re dreaming of an open-concept design, want to add a bedroom or change the kitchen layout. Outside, the expansive yard offers endless possibilities for landscaping, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor retreat. The footprint is set for the garage to be built.  The lot size provides space to truly enhance the property. This home is more than a project — it’s an opportunity to create something special with the gutting and cleanup already done, all that's needed is your imagination. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and shopping, the long-term potential is undeniable. Bring your creativity and unlock the value waiting here!

18. 2026-02-21
    listed $200,000 Active 1342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1342 chars)

    Opportunity knocks with this classic fixer-upper full of potential and ready for your vision. Situated on a generously sized lot on the desirable Mitchell Loop, this property offers an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity! With solid bones, new hardi plank siding, and a functional layout, the foundation is set for a stunning transformation. Inside, the spacious living area features large windows that bring in abundant natural light, a wood burning stove, plumbing & electrical laid out in the floor and walls. The floor plan provides flexibility for you to decide how you want it, whether you’re dreaming of an open-concept design, want to add a bedroom or change the kitchen layout. Outside, the expansive yard offers endless possibilities for landscaping, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor retreat. The footprint is set for the garage to be built.  The lot size provides space to truly enhance the property. This home is more than a project — it’s an opportunity to create something special with the gutting and cleanup already done, all that's needed is your imagination. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and shopping, the long-term potential is undeniable. Bring your creativity and unlock the value waiting here!

19. 2023-08-17
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $3,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Dunes City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #14748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+26.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $190,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $200,000 RMLS
• 2023-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.