3557 Cedarville Rd #25 · Deming, WA 98226

$179,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2022 $213/sqft · 40% below area Est $300k · 40% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2022 single-wide manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with a bright, open-concept layout. The spacious kitchen features abundant cabinetry, plenty of natural light, and flows seamlessly into the inviting living area. Large windows throughout create a warm and airy feel. Situated on a private, spacious lot in the highly desirable Mt. Baker Mobile Home Park in the county, this peaceful community is less than 15 minutes from Bellingham. Conveniently located on the way to the North Cascades and Mt. Baker, perfect for outdoor enthusiasts. Well-managed park with affordable space rent, and homes here rarely become available. Now offered with a $10,000 price reduction

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2022
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area 840 square feet; Structure type: Manufactured house; Style: Manufactured single wide
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Mt Baker Mobile Home Park (23 homes in park); Park approved for sale; Pets allowed: cats OK, dogs OK (see remarks); Land lease: $575

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric power; Shared well water; Mt Baker Mobile Home Park septic sewer; Internet: Astound
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; 2022 ALBANY model; Very good condition; Mobile home remains in place
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie down foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior / wood products; Patio/porch/deck; Has a view; Skirted with wood

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (includes 1 bathtub and 1 shower)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Double pane windows; Ceiling fan(s); Bath off primary; Patio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: Water heater located in primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#579 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Baker School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #165 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Elementary (309 students, 45% FRL); Mount Baker Senior High (517 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 380 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $179k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,921
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -40.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3557 Cedarville Rd #2	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	24mo	$149,000	$161	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,847
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,661
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98226

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $426	+0% $376	+5% $325	+10% $274
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $302	+0% $376	+5% $449	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $421	base $376	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $179,000 Active
17. 2013-10-31
    historical
18. 2013-10-31
    soldstatus $49,900 Sold
19. 2013-10-15
    status Pending Inspection
20. 2013-10-08
    status Active
21. 2013-09-16
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2013-03-12
    listed $49,900 Active
23. 2008-07-01
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 2008-07-01
    historical
25. 2007-05-24
    listed $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,754 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$396
• After-tax cash flow: $4,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Baker School District
• NCES district ID: 5305310
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,695
• Composite: 42.37/100
• National rank: #6931
• State rank: #165 of 291 in WA

Livability — Deming

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #25543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 46,782
• Household income: $79,375
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2061.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 6% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -573.37%
• Current HPI: 406.1085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.42%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+276.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $179,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-31 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-31 Sold (MLS) $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-08 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-12 Listed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Sold (MLS) $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-24 Listed $47,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $940 · +40.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.