419 N Grange Hall Rd · Pleasant Valley, AK 99712

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1976 5.00 ac lot $61/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH or CONSTRUCTION LOAN BUYERS ONLY. Opportunity for the right buyer seeking acreage, sweat equity, and a true Alaskan project. Ideal for contractors, investors, owner-builders, and visionaries looking to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Located approximately 25 miles out Chena Hot Springs Road, this 5-acre property features a 1976-built main structure originally configured as a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Sheetrock has been removed throughout, revealing interior logs that were found to be in unfavorable condition. The main structure will require substantial rehabilitation or potential rebuild. This property is not move-in ready and is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS. In addition to the main structure, the sellers converted a shop/warehouse space into a 1-bedroom dry cabin (bathroom framed/set up but not completed) with room to expand number of bedrooms and potential for a future garage. The dry cabin is unfinished but equipped with solar panels and a diesel generator, offering off-grid functionality and the potential for interim use while renovations or new construction are completed. This property is best suited for contractors, investors, owner-builders, or buyers with construction experience seeking land, privacy, and the opportunity to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Not FHA or VA financeable. Cash or construction loan buyers only. Bring vision, tools, and a plan.

Key facts

• Diesel generator
• Interior logs
• Solar panels

Tags

• 5 ACRE PROPERTY
• INTERIOR LOGS
• SUBSTANTIAL REHABILITATION
• SOLAR PANELS
• DIESEL GENERATOR
• OFF GRID FUNCTIONALITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#141 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.44%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,979
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -68.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Grange Hall Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,967 (0%)	13mo	$64,900	$33	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,064
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $27,632
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99712

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,409/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $354	+0% $320	+5% $286	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $256	+0% $320	+5% $385	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $351	base $320	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-04-03
   price $120,000 1432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1432 chars)

   CASH or CONSTRUCTION LOAN BUYERS ONLY. Opportunity for the right buyer seeking acreage, sweat equity, and a true Alaskan project. Ideal for contractors, investors, owner-builders, and visionaries looking to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Located approximately 25 miles out Chena Hot Springs Road, this 5-acre property features a 1976-built main structure originally configured as a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Sheetrock has been removed throughout, revealing interior logs that were found to be in unfavorable condition. The main structure will require substantial rehabilitation or potential rebuild. This property is not move-in ready and is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS. In addition to the main structure, the sellers converted a shop/warehouse space into a 1-bedroom dry cabin (bathroom framed/set up but not completed) with room to expand number of bedrooms and potential for a future garage. The dry cabin is unfinished but equipped with solar panels and a diesel generator, offering off-grid functionality and the potential for interim use while renovations or new construction are completed. This property is best suited for contractors, investors, owner-builders, or buyers with construction experience seeking land, privacy, and the opportunity to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Not FHA or VA financeable. Cash or construction loan buyers only. Bring vision, tools, and a plan.

5. 2026-03-12
   price $150,000 1432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1432 chars)

   CASH or CONSTRUCTION LOAN BUYERS ONLY. Opportunity for the right buyer seeking acreage, sweat equity, and a true Alaskan project. Ideal for contractors, investors, owner-builders, and visionaries looking to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Located approximately 25 miles out Chena Hot Springs Road, this 5-acre property features a 1976-built main structure originally configured as a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Sheetrock has been removed throughout, revealing interior logs that were found to be in unfavorable condition. The main structure will require substantial rehabilitation or potential rebuild. This property is not move-in ready and is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS. In addition to the main structure, the sellers converted a shop/warehouse space into a 1-bedroom dry cabin (bathroom framed/set up but not completed) with room to expand number of bedrooms and potential for a future garage. The dry cabin is unfinished but equipped with solar panels and a diesel generator, offering off-grid functionality and the potential for interim use while renovations or new construction are completed. This property is best suited for contractors, investors, owner-builders, or buyers with construction experience seeking land, privacy, and the opportunity to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Not FHA or VA financeable. Cash or construction loan buyers only. Bring vision, tools, and a plan.

6. 2026-02-11
   listed $160,000 Active 1432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1432 chars)

   CASH or CONSTRUCTION LOAN BUYERS ONLY. Opportunity for the right buyer seeking acreage, sweat equity, and a true Alaskan project. Ideal for contractors, investors, owner-builders, and visionaries looking to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Located approximately 25 miles out Chena Hot Springs Road, this 5-acre property features a 1976-built main structure originally configured as a 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Sheetrock has been removed throughout, revealing interior logs that were found to be in unfavorable condition. The main structure will require substantial rehabilitation or potential rebuild. This property is not move-in ready and is being sold strictly AS-IS, WHERE-IS. In addition to the main structure, the sellers converted a shop/warehouse space into a 1-bedroom dry cabin (bathroom framed/set up but not completed) with room to expand number of bedrooms and potential for a future garage. The dry cabin is unfinished but equipped with solar panels and a diesel generator, offering off-grid functionality and the potential for interim use while renovations or new construction are completed. This property is best suited for contractors, investors, owner-builders, or buyers with construction experience seeking land, privacy, and the opportunity to create value through renovation or redevelopment. Not FHA or VA financeable. Cash or construction loan buyers only. Bring vision, tools, and a plan.

7. 2025-05-08
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2025-05-08
   soldstatus
9. 2025-05-08
   historical
10. 2025-04-22
    price $64,900
11. 2025-03-24
    price $69,900
12. 2025-03-01
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,409 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,409 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,409
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,158
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$518
• After-tax cash flow: $3,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Pleasant Valley

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #23260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasant Valley, AK
• Population (ZIP): 12,070

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.35%
• Current HPI: 148.2472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+60.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $120,000 GFBR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $150,000 GFBR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $160,000 GFBR
• 2025-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-08 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2025-05-08 Delisted — GFBR
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $64,900 GFBR
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $69,900 GFBR
• 2025-03-01 Listed $74,900 GFBR

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,409 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.