8481 CR 636 · Nobleton, FL 33513

$210,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1961 0.47 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

COUNTRY LIVING WITH INCOME POTENTIAL & CLOSE BY RIVER ACCESS! Discover tranquility in this charming 2bd/2bth home (828 sq ft) along with 1bd/1bth Mother-In-Law Suite (320 sq ft) nestled on a spacious, close to half-acre lot in an established peaceful community. Here you will enjoy country living at its best with deeded access to a neighborhood boat ramp leading to the Withlacoochee River, making those afternoon boat rides more possible, plus nearby bike trails for outdoor adventure. This property is the perfect balance of relaxation and recreation without the "river front" price tag. Convenient access to I-75 makes commuting a breeze. Property Features: Detached Mother-In-La

Key facts

• Deeded access
• Bike trails
• Private entrance

Tags

• RIVER ACCESS
• DEEDED ACCESS
• NEIGHBORHOOD BOAT RAMP
• BIKE TRAILS
• DETACHED MOTHER-IN-LAW SUITE
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned R4M; Guest house and shed(s) on property; Approximately 0.47-acre lot (0.25–0.5 acre); Oak trees on the property; Deeded community access to a neighborhood boat ramp on the Withlacoochee River; River access
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private utilities; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Cedar construction; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Wire fencing; Neighborhood boat ramp access for community residents

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split-bedroom layout; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-378/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#880 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,112 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,272
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8354 CR 647s	0.11mi	2/1.0	833 (+1%)	22mo	$130,000	$156	73
8850 CR 641	0.44mi	2/1.0	780 (-6%)	22mo	$57,800	$74	49
8403 CR 647	0.64mi	2/2.0	720 (-13%)	23mo	$45,000	$63	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $112,252
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $331,908
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33513

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $438/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $204,443

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $210,000
17. 2026-02-19
    price $225,000
18. 2025-12-14
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $438 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,305/yr (+$109/mo · 298.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$438
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nobleton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #23567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,647

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.29%
• Current HPI: 354.5531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-14 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $438 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.