21143 Medina River Dr · Cypress, TX 77433

$277,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,970 sqft · Townhouse public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,618 sqft lot Garage $141/sqft · 13% below area Est $318k · 13% under $216/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want this beautifully designed townhome in the highly sought-after Bridgeland community? The bright open-concept layout seamlessly connects the family room, breakfast area, and island kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. A versatile first-floor bonus room provides the flexibility to serve as a home office, game room, fitness area, or additional living space. Additional highlights include generous storage, multiple walk-in closets, a covered patio, and an attached two-car garage.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FIRST-FLOOR BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-665 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Cypress — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 3346 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,005 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.29%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,559
• List price: $277,000
• Delta: -12.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12642 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	5mo	$328,990	$173	73
12634 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	5mo	$328,990	$173	72
12615 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,897 (-4%)	5mo	$333,990	$176	72
12514 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	4mo	$286,990	$151	71
12522 Alligator Lake Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	2mo	$274,990	$145	71
12602 Blue Catfish Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	5mo	$328,990	$173	71
12638 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	5mo	$332,990	$182	66
12654 Blue Catfish Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	6mo	$332,990	$182	66
12502 Alligator Lake Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	4mo	$342,990	$188	65
12603 Blue Catfish Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	5mo	$330,990	$181	65
12518 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	4mo	$332,990	$182	65
12507 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-7%)	2mo	$301,990	$165	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-93,916
• Equity at exit: $41,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.09×
• Total profit: $-162,014
• Equity at exit: $23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,490 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 54 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 3346
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax from tax record: −$800 /mo · $9,600/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,271

Max offer price $192,005

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-508	-5% $-587	+0% $-665	+5% $-743	+10% $-822
Rent	-10% $-857	-5% $-761	+0% $-665	+5% $-569	+10% $-473
Rate	-1.0pp $-526	-0.5pp $-595	base $-665	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-810

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12946 Rio Mariano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,199	$1.26	107d	1	0.09mi
21121 Doubtful Canyon Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	109d	1	0.25mi
21158 Staked Plains Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2003	$2,495	$1.25	107d	1	0.26mi
12519 Ja Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	165d	1	0.27mi
21106 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,949	$1.24	71d	1	0.30mi
21234 Black Gap Wildlife Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1865	$2,500	$1.34	184d	1	0.30mi
21110 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$2,399	$1.20	45d	1	0.30mi
21134 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2003	$2,700	$1.35	10d	1	0.31mi
21119 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,425	$1.36	50d	1	0.34mi
12623 Blue Catfish Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,350	$1.23	146d	1	0.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by Inframark Community ManagementAnnual association feeCommunity amenities: dog park, playground, park, pool, tennis courts, trails, maintained groundsAssociation fee covers grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyTwo-story homeEntry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2024Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemPond on the propertyConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 18x12)Two additional bedrooms on first level (approx. 12x10 and 10x12)Three possible bedrooms total
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSplit-bedroom floorplanUpper-level primary suiteCeiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (second level, approx. 6x6)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $277,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $277,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $277,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $277,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $277,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $277,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $277,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $277,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   pricedays on market $277,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 32 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 31 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,600 · $800/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,600 · $800/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$9,600
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,332
• − Management: −$2,332
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$12,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed townhome in the Bridgeland community is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a bright open-concept layout, modern appliances, and ample storage. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained yard and irrigation system improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roberts Road El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 212,884
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by Inframark Community ManagementAnnual association feeCommunity amenities: dog park, playground, park, pool, tennis courts, trails, maintained groundsAssociation fee covers grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyTwo-story homeEntry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Cement sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2024Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemPond on the propertyConcrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 18x12)Two additional bedrooms on first level (approx. 12x10 and 10x12)Three possible bedrooms total
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSplit-bedroom floorplanUpper-level primary suiteCeiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (second level, approx. 6x6)

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-04 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-09-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-31 Listed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $279,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+85.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,600 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.