Is 21143 Medina River Dr in Cypress, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.1% cap rate and $-739/mo modeled cash flow at a $275,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 21143 Medina River Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,429/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 33.43

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.7/15.0
Cash flow +4.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.8/10.0
Schools +3.0/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$275,000

21143 Medina River Dr · Cypress, TX 77433

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,970 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,618 sqft lot Garage $140/sqft · 14% below area Est $319k · 14% under $216/mo HOA · 9% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Want this beautifully designed townhome in the highly sought-after Bridgeland community? The bright open-concept layout seamlessly connects the family room, breakfast area, and island kitchen, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. A versatile first-floor bonus room provides the flexibility to serve as a home office, game room, fitness area, or additional living space. Additional highlights include generous storage, multiple walk-in closets, a covered patio, and an attached two-car garage.

Key facts

Soaking tub
Walk-in closet
Primary suite

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-739 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (22.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (11.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $212k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 3008 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,391 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.88% ✗
Cap rate: 3.07%
Cash-on-cash: -11.51%
DSCR: 0.49
GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $318,734
List price: $275,000
Delta: -13.72%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12642 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	4mo	$328,990	$173	74
12634 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	4mo	$328,990	$173	74
12615 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,897 (-4%)	4mo	$333,990	$176	73
12514 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	3mo	$286,990	$151	73
12602 Blue Catfish Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-3%)	4mo	$328,990	$173	72
12638 Blue Catfish Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	4mo	$332,990	$182	67
12654 Blue Catfish Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	5mo	$332,990	$182	67
12603 Blue Catfish Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	4mo	$330,990	$181	66
12502 Alligator Lake Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	2mo	$342,990	$188	66
12518 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	3mo	$332,990	$182	66
12507 Alligator Lake Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-7%)	1mo	$301,990	$165	66
12614 Blue Catfish Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-7%)	5mo	$332,990	$182	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -42.5%
Equity multiple: -0.28×
Total profit: $-98,227
Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.23×
Total profit: $-171,588
Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 12 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $284,490 ($153/sqft)
Median days on market: 57 d
This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

Home prices YoY: -28.5%
Rents YoY: -1.3%
Active inventory: 3008
Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,429 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
Tax from tax record: −$885 /mo · $10,620/yr
Insurance: −$115
HOA: −$216
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
Net cashflow: $-739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,364

Max offer price $212,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-583	-5% $-661	+0% $-739	+5% $-817	+10% $-894
Rent	-10% $-931	-5% $-835	+0% $-739	+5% $-643	+10% $-547
Rate	-1.0pp $-600	-0.5pp $-669	base $-739	+0.5pp $-810	+1.0pp $-882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,750
Closing costs: $8,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12946 Rio Mariano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,199	$1.26	62d	1	0.09mi
21121 Doubtful Canyon Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	63d	1	0.25mi
21158 Staked Plains Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2003	$2,495	$1.25	62d	1	0.26mi
12519 Ja Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	120d	1	0.27mi
21106 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,949	$1.24	26d	1	0.30mi
21234 Black Gap Wildlife Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1865	$2,500	$1.34	139d	1	0.30mi
21110 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1991	$2,399	$1.20	0d	1	0.30mi
21134 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2003	$2,700	$1.35	45d	1	0.31mi
21119 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,425	$1.36	5d	1	0.34mi
12623 Blue Catfish Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,350	$1.23	101d	1	0.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Road access via concrete surface
HOA & community: Managed by Inframark Community ManagementAnnual association feeAssociation amenities include dog park, playground, park, community pool, tennis courts, trails, and grounds maintenanceAssociation fee covers grounds and structure maintenance

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property2 storiesBuilt in 2024Slab foundationComposition roofCement siding exterior
Construction: Cement siding constructionComposition roofingSlab foundation
Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemPond on the property

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (18x12)Additional bedrooms on first level (12x10 and 10x12)Total possible bedrooms: 3
Flooring: CarpetTile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomPrimary bathroom on second level (11x10)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen and family room combined layoutCeiling fansKitchen and dining combined layout
Laundry & utility: Utility room on second level (6x6)

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-04

pricedays on marketlisting id $275,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $279,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $279,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $279,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $279,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $279,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $279,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $279,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $279,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $279,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $279,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $279,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $279,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $279,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $279,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $279,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $279,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $279,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-01

days on marketlisting id $279,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $279,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $279,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $279,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $279,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $279,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $279,990 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $10,620 · $885/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $10,620 · $885/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,149
− Mortgage interest: −$15,404
− Property taxes: −$10,620
− Insurance: −$1,375
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,332
− Management: −$2,332
− HOA: −$2,592
− Depreciation: −$8,000
Taxable loss: −$13,506

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,241
After-tax cash flow: $-5,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed townhome in the Bridgeland community is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a bright open-concept layout, modern appliances, and ample storage. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping and irrigation system — A well-maintained yard and irrigation system improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roberts Road El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 212,884
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 116,550
Household income: $143,934
Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
Current HPI: 220.2136
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-07-31 Listed $279,990 HARMLS
2026-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-29 Listed $279,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+165.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,620 · +719.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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