657 Lebec #49 · Lebec, CA 93243

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1994 $85/sqft · 46% below area Est $166k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home located in a quiet, well-maintained community. This home features brand-new window panels that bring in plenty of natural light, along with stunning NEW kitchen cabinets that give the space a fresh, modern feel. Enjoy the comfort and style of NEW laminate flooring throughout, making the home both elegant and easy to maintain. Conveniently situated near the Interstate 5, commuting is a breeze. You’ll also love being just minutes away from shopping and entertainment at the. Tejon Outlets and the Hard Rock Cafe. This is a perfect opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a peaceful setting while staying close to everything you need!

Key facts

• Near interstate 5
• New window panels
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW WINDOW PANELS
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEAR INTERSTATE 5
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,210 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+; Watch: cost of living C-, housing D+, schools F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $884 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $262 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.66%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,000
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -45.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
657 Lebec Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-1%)	16mo	$103,000	$98	86
657 Lebec Rd #20	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-2%)	19mo	$47,000	$45	77
657 Lebec Rd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+10%)	16mo	$175,000	$150	69
657 Lebec Rd #42	0.00mi	3/1.0	900 (-15%)	18mo	$50,850	$57	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $42,084
• Equity at exit: $27,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $105,907
• Equity at exit: $34,072

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93243

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $447/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $90,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home located in a quiet, well-maintained community. This home features brand-new window panels that bring in plenty of natural light, along with stunning NEW kitchen cabinets that give the space a fresh, modern feel. Enjoy the comfort and style of NEW laminate flooring throughout, making the home both elegant and easy to maintain. Conveniently situated near the Interstate 5, commuting is a breeze. You’ll also love being just minutes away from shopping and entertainment at the. Tejon Outlets and the Hard Rock Cafe. This is a perfect opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a peaceful setting while staying close to everything you need!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$237/yr (+$20/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$447
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $6,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lebec

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1210
• US rank: #26134

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lebec, CA
• Population (ZIP): 900

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 10% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 7% German 5% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 343.2452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $90,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $447 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.