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3 Cypress Run Unit 31C
D Composite 44.18
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +10.2/30.0
  • 1% rule +5.2/10.0
  • Schools +5.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.0/5.0
  • DSCR +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$170,000

3 Cypress Run Unit 31C · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34446
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · Condo · 134 Days on market
55+ age-restricted Built 1981 Good condition $103/sqft · 10% below area Est $189k · 10% under $575/mo HOA · 33% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Maintenance Free Living! HOA includes Wi-Fi, basic cable, water, sewer, exterior maintenance, building insurance, pest control, landscaping, trash service, lawn care, roof maintenance, reserve funding and a heated community pool. Welcome to carefree living in the highly sought-after Sugarmill Woods-Cypress Run Community! This beautifully maintained third-floor end unit condo offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms overlooking the scenic Sugarmill Woods Golf Course. The end-unit location provides an abundance of natural light throughout the home, enhancing the warm and inviting atmosphere. Interior features include bamboo flooring throughout the main living areas and tile flooring in both bathrooms for easy maintenance and timeless appeal. The monthly HOA covers an impressive list of amenities and services, allowing you more time to enjoy life and less time worrying about upkeep. Enjoy peaceful golf course views from your very own retreat in this well-established community. Cypress Run Community is NOT a 55+ community, offering flexibility for a variety of buyers, with pet restrictions in place. Great for buyers looking to simplify life without sacrificing comfort, convenience, or community amenities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and the natural beauty of Florida’s Nature Coast, this condo is exceptional for year-round living or a seasonal getaway.

Key facts

  • Third-floor end unit
  • Near shopping
  • Tile flooring

Tags

THIRD-FLOOR END UNITBAMBOO FLOORINGTILE FLOORINGGOLF COURSE VIEWSWELL-ESTABLISHED COMMUNITYNEAR SHOPPING

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (36.5% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
  • Recommended offer: $108k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Lecanto Primary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 820 students, 63% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: 808 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $107,879 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.03%
Cap rate
3.73%
Cash-on-cash
-9.15%
DSCR
0.59
GRM
8.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$188,841
List price
$170,000
Delta
-9.98%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3 Cypress Run Unit 33A 0.00mi 2/2.0 1,643 (0%) 1mo $163,000 $99 99
2 Quail Run 0.34mi 2/2.0 1,528 (-7%) 1mo $215,000 $141 72
4 Laurelcherry Ct 1.03mi 2/2.0 1,790 (+9%) 0mo $235,000 $131 50
49 Douglas St #22 0.64mi 2/2.5 1,456 (-11%) 0mo $140,000 $96 49
3 Rebecca Ct 1.01mi 3/3.0 (+1) 1,734 (+6%) 0mo $295,000 $170 47
53 Douglas St #16 0.68mi 2/2.5 1,456 (-11%) 1mo $107,000 $73 47
16 Golfview Ct 0.71mi 2/2.0 1,436 (-13%) 0mo $220,000 $153 46
23 Sweetgum Ct S 0.96mi 2/2.0 1,269 (-23%) 1mo $275,000 $217 40
36 W Byrsonima Loop 0.84mi 3/2.0 (+1) 2,030 (+24%) 0mo $285,000 $140 35
35 Speceberry Cir 1.27mi 3/2.0 (+1) 2,035 (+24%) 0mo $299,000 $147 35
5 Dahoon Dr 0.81mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,394 (-15%) 1mo $235,000 $169 34
46 Greentree St 0.77mi 3/3.0 (+1) 1,890 (+15%) 1mo $291,500 $154 30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.5%
Equity multiple
-0.14×
Total profit
$-54,469
Equity at exit
$25,348
10-year hold
IRR
-45.0%
Equity multiple
-0.70×
Total profit
$-80,930
Equity at exit
$14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
1 active · 1 under contract
Median asking
$260,000 ($174/sqft)
Median days on market
39 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
-34.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34446

Home prices YoY
-10.4%
Active inventory
808
Price-to-rent
8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,756 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$891
Tax est. 1.5%
$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
Insurance
$71
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$575
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$369
Net cashflow
$-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,299
Max offer price $107,879
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-312 -5% $-371 +0% $-429 +5% $-488 +10% $-547
Rent -10% $-568 -5% $-499 +0% $-429 +5% $-360 +10% $-291
Rate -1.0pp $-344 -0.5pp $-386 base $-429 +0.5pp $-473 +1.0pp $-518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$42,500
Closing costs
$5,100
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
5 Black Cherry Dr Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1140 $1,600 $1.40 116d 1 0.17mi
5 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1353 $1,500 $1.11 116d 1 0.22mi
17 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1100 $1,500 $1.36 116d 1 0.27mi
57 Chinaberry Cir Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1132 $1,575 $1.39 116d 1 0.40mi
78 Golfview Dr Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1983 $1,400 $0.71 116d 1 0.51mi
17 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1400 $1,600 $1.14 116d 1 0.52mi
23 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1492 $2,200 $1.47 116d 1 0.54mi
117 Golfview Dr Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1507 $2,000 $1.33 116d 1 0.65mi
51 Golfview Ct Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1553 $1,900 $1.22 116d 1 0.70mi
6270 W Oak Park Blvd Unit 6270 Homosassa, FL 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,850 $1.23 110d 1 1.01mi
6789 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1200 $1,695 $1.41 77d 1 1.13mi
5538 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL 2.0 2.0 1439 $1,700 $1.18 6d 1 1.23mi
5356 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL 3.0 2.0 1451 $2,600 $1.79 6d 1 1.38mi
5356 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL 3.0 2.0 1451 $2,750 $1.90 120d 1 1.38mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
UnfurnishedLiving area reported as 1,643 sq ftLot is paved and about 0.01 acre
Financial info
Total monthly fees $575.75Total annual fees $6,909Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Monthly condo fee $565Association fee $129 annuallyHas HOA (Cypress Village POA)Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, cable TV, maintenance, internet, insurance, pest control, sewer, trash, water, common area taxes, escrow reserves, fidelity bond, maintenance structure and groundsCommunity features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, pool, street lightsPets not allowedAssociation fee required

Exterior

Parking
Assigned covered parkingCommon parkingCarport with 1 space
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerCable connectedInternet available (BB/HS)Electricity connectedUnderground utilitiesWater connectedSewer connected
Home design
CondominiumResidential propertyThird floor unitFaces westThree or more storiesEntry on third floor (unit in building 3, unit 31C)
Construction
Block, concrete and stucco constructionMembrane roofSlab foundationBuilding number 3
Exterior features
LightingSidewalkPaved road accessIrrigation equipment

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorSolid surface counters
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
Bamboo flooringTile flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanLiving room / dining room comboSplit bedroom floor planSolid surface countersWindow treatments
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedLaundry insideElectric water heater

HOA detail $575/mo · $6,900/yr condo

Likely covers
watersewertrashinternetcablelandscapingexterior maint.roofinsurancepool
Assessments
None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $170,000 Active 134 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $170,000 Active 133 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $170,000 Active 130 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $170,000 Active 129 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $170,000 Active 128 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $170,000 Active 127 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $170,000 Active 126 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $170,000 Active 125 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $170,000 Active 124 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $170,000 Active 123 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $170,000 Active 122 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 116 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 115 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 114 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 111 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $185,000 Active 108 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $185,000 Active 107 DOM
  21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $185,000 Active 105 DOM
  22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $185,000 Active 104 DOM
  23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
  24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $185,000 Active 102 DOM
  25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $185,000 Active 100 DOM
  26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $185,000 Active 99 DOM
  27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
  28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
  29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
  30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $185,000 Active 95 DOM
  31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $185,000 Active 94 DOM
  32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
  33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $185,000 Active 92 DOM
  34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $185,000 Active 91 DOM
  35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $185,000 Active 90 DOM
  36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
  37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
  38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
  39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $185,000 Active 86 DOM
  40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 85 DOM
  41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
  42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
  43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
  44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
  45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
  46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
  47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
  48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
  49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
  50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$21,068
− Mortgage interest
−$9,523
− Property taxes
−$2,550
− Insurance
−$1,648
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,685
− Management
−$1,685
− HOA
−$6,900
− Depreciation
−$4,945
Taxable loss
−$7,868
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,888
After-tax cash flow
$-3,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,215–$24,645 screening

This well-maintained third-floor end unit condo in Sugarmill Woods offers a good condition with bamboo flooring and tile bathrooms. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and energy-efficient windows to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
  • Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improves energy efficiency and resale value
  • Both Replace flooring with modern materials — Modernizes the space and increases resale value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lecanto Primary School C FL #936/2,144 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Lecanto Middle School C- FL #265/571 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Lecanto High School D FL #179/667 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Citrus
NCES district ID
1200270
Math proficiency
49% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$38,618
Composite
41.28/100
National rank
#3519
State rank
#44 of 73 in FL
D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

Score
59/100
State rank
#825
US rank
#20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Sugarmill Woods, FL
County
Citrus County · 138,622 people
City population
18,797
Metro
Homosassa Springs, FL
Population (ZIP)
19,102
Household income
$58,802
Rent vs Own
6.9% rent · 93.1% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
138,622 people
By 2030
136,886 · -1.3%
By 2040
132,009 · -4.8%
By 2050
125,196 · -9.7%
By 2075
108,570 · -21.7%
By 2100
84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity
White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
Foreign-born
5% · Canada
Languages at home
95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

2024 margin
Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
2008→2024 swing
-29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
All cycles
2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-12 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-12 Listed $185,000 RACC

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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