540 Sportsman Dr · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$67,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · Manufactured public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1992 $51/sqft · 58% below area $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath home in lake area community of Trinity Cove with additional lot. 2 car detached garage on a slab. Enjoy the amenities of Trinity Cove- lake access, boat launch, fishing pier, picnic area and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Fishing pier
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT LAUNCH
• FISHING PIER
• PICNIC AREA
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $118 of equity ($469 loan paydown + $-351 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.58%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,900
• List price: $67,900
• Delta: -57.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Hounds Chase Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	2mo	$159,900	$119	81
1355 Trinity Cove Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+10%)	6mo	$149,900	$103	73
1227 Post Oak Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+10%)	11mo	$190,000	$130	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $33,307
• Equity at exit: $17,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $83,704
• Equity at exit: $20,270

Cash invested: $19,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $798/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $587

Max offer price $67,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,975
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $67,900 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $67,900 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $67,900 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $67,900 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-03-26
   price $67,900 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home in lake area community of Trinity Cove with additional lot. 2 car detached garage on a slab. Enjoy the amenities of Trinity Cove- lake access, boat launch, fishing pier, picnic area and clubhouse.

6. 2025-12-08
   listed $70,000 Active 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   3 bedroom 2 bath home in lake area community of Trinity Cove with additional lot. 2 car detached garage on a slab. Enjoy the amenities of Trinity Cove- lake access, boat launch, fishing pier, picnic area and clubhouse.

7. 2025-01-07
   historical $1,000
8. 2025-01-06
   listed $1,000
9. 2024-12-21
   historical $1,000
10. 2024-11-20
    historical
11. 2024-09-26
    price $72,000
12. 2024-08-19
    listed $1,000
13. 2024-08-19
    price $82,000
14. 2024-04-05
    price $84,000
15. 2024-01-12
    price $94,000
16. 2023-11-20
    listed $99,000 Active
17. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2021-08-02
    status Pending
19. 2021-04-14
    listed $59,900 Active
20. 2019-07-22
    historical
21. 2019-06-11
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $798 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 55.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,803
• − Property taxes: −$798
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$1,975
• Taxable income: $6,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $5,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+239.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $67,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed for Rent $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $72,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Listed for Rent $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $82,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $84,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Price Changed $94,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-14 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2019-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-06-11 Listed $20,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $798 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.