4095 Geranium Ln · Chums Corner, MI 49685

$58,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take advantage of this opportunity to own a well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home featuring a spacious open floor plan designed for comfort and convenience. This move in ready home offers a bright living space that connects seamlessly to a large kitchen creating an ideal setup for everyday living dining and entertaining. The functional layout includes three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms offering flexibility and practicality throughout the home. The kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space making meal preparation and storage simple and efficient. With its low maintenance features and inviting layout this home offers an excellent combination of style value and functi

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LOW MAINTENANCE FEATURES
• DESIRABLE COMMUNITY SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as a spec home; List price $58,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section home; 3 bed, 2 bath plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1120

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, disposal, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 1.5% in Chums Corner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#400 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Traverse City Area Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #94 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 883 units permitted in Grand Traverse County in 2024 (501 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $407 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Traverse County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,133 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.21%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $38,806
• Equity at exit: $8,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $96,111
• Equity at exit: $5,093

Cash invested: $16,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49685

• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $515

Max offer price $58,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,725
• Closing costs: $1,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4170 Lilac Ln Unit 905 Traverse City, MI	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,419	$1.27	43d	1	0.05mi
4418 E Daisy Ln Unit 156 Traverse City, MI	2.0	2.0	896	$1,649	$1.84	43d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $58,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $58,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    listed $58,900 Active 1102-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,299
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$1,713
• Taxable income: $8,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,084
• After-tax cash flow: $7,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with modern appliances and flooring. The exterior is clean and the property is located in a desirable neighborhood with community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — increases both resale and rental value
• Both install modern lighting fixtures — improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — increases both resale and rental value ↑
• Both install modern lighting fixtures — improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Traverse City Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633870
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,645
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #2990
• State rank: #94 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chums Corner

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #10826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,297

Population outlook (Grand Traverse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,241 people
• By 2030: 107,172 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 115,676 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 122,377 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 136,554 · +33.6%
• By 2100: 137,871 · +34.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand Traverse

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.3% · R 50.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+3.0 2016: R+12.5 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.83%
• Current HPI: 351.3678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B