5545 Bradley Dr · Jefferson City, MO 65109

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1984 6,534 sqft lot Est $224k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated and move in ready west end home! This well maintained 3bed 2 full bath home offers comfortable living space with a 1 car garage and plenty of room to spready out. Recent improvements inckude new floor coverings, and a new heat and air system, giving you peace of mind and modern comfort. The main level flows nicely for everyday living while the lower level features a spacious family room plus a bonus room, perfect for a home office, hobby space or potential 4th bedroom. Step outside to enjoy the nice deck and patio, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. A great combination of updates, space and location!

Key facts

• Nice deck
• Bonus room
• New floor coverings

Tags

• NEW FLOOR COVERINGS
• NEW HEAT AND AIR SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• BONUS ROOM
• NICE DECK
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Lawson Elem. (math 43% / reading 52%, grade D, #342 of 1,115 statewide, top 31%, 419 students, 53% FRL); Thomas Jefferson Middle (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 957 students, 52% FRL); Jefferson City High (math 46% / reading 63%, grade C-, #69 of 521 statewide, top 15%, 1,296 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $143,977 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,818
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5525 Scherr Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+4%)	2mo	$230,000	$145	77
5501 S Brooks Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	10mo	$219,000	$146	74
5417 Bret Ct	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,556 (+2%)	22mo	$184,900	$119	65
5408 Bret Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-8%)	6mo	$209,900	$150	62
5428 Bret Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-4%)	24mo	$186,000	$126	60
5405 Thornridge Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+10%)	12mo	$339,900	$202	50
1616 Westview Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,362 (-11%)	8mo	$179,000	$131	49
1401 Westview Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,446 (-6%)	14mo	$199,900	$138	41
5317 Thornridge Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+11%)	19mo	$348,500	$205	40
1509 Fairlawn Ct	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,340 (-13%)	15mo	$229,900	$172	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-35,015
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,193
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65109

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,609

Max offer price $186,262

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-74	+0% $-134	+5% $-193	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-191	+0% $-134	+5% $-77	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-80	base $-134	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5428 Bagnall Dr Jefferson City, MO	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,525	$1.09	45d	1	0.23mi
1043 Emily Ln Unit 1045 Jefferson City, MO	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,350	$0.93	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,036 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,040/yr (+$87/mo · 104.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson City
• NCES district ID: 2916190
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,903
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4930
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jefferson City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #838

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cole County · 41,145 people
• City population: 41,145
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 41,145
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 984.0

Population outlook (Cole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,107 people
• By 2030: 78,089 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 76,814 · -1.7%
• By 2050: 74,515 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 67,687 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 55,023 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.4) · D 32.1% · R 66.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -34.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.4 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.14%
• Current HPI: 202.01
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Metro: Jefferson City, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — JCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $209,900 JCMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.