2145 31st St #23 · Springfield, OR 97477

$14,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1979 $15/sqft · 94% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Opportunity with Instant Equity Potential! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a family park. Monthly space rent is $1179. This home is perfect for someone handy and ready to invest a little sweat equity. With some repairs and updates, you could gain instant equity and make this home truly your own. Cash only. Enjoy the convenience of being near parks, schools, scenic walking/biking trails, and quick freeway access—ideal for both families and commuters. Don’t miss this opportunity to own at an affordable price. Cash only.

Key facts

• Quick freeway access
• Built 1979
• Listed 73 days

Tags

• SCENIC WALKING BIKING TRAILS
• QUICK FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 107.7% vs local median 3.0% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#40 in OR, #934 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D+.
• Springfield SD 19 (suburban): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #48 of 58 in OR (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $97 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $420 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $13,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 107.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 362.18%
• DSCR: 17.11
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,771
• List price: $14,000
• Delta: -94.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2145 31st St #31	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	5mo	$35,000	$38	96
2145 31st St #40	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+7%)	22mo	$70,000	$71	64
1215 36th St	0.74mi	2/2.0	868 (-6%)	13mo	$184,000	$212	45
2606 Maia Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	22mo	$330,000	$313	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.42×
• Total profit: $76,113
• Equity at exit: $2,087

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 45.95×
• Total profit: $176,196
• Equity at exit: $1,210

Cash invested: $3,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97477

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$73
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$18 /mo · $210/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $122

Max offer price $14,000

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,500
• Closing costs: $420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2700 Pierce Pkwy Springfield, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,085	$2.38	14d	11	0.28mi
2005 Marcola Rd Springfield, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,274	$2.12	14d	4	0.79mi
1630 N 21st St Unit 1630 Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	878	$1,495	$1.70	44d	1	0.92mi
1890 M St Springfield, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	725	$1,699	$2.34	14d	3	0.99mi
1890 M St Springfield, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,599	$1.55	21d	1	0.99mi
1813 M St Springfield, OR	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	44d	1	1.10mi
2680 E St Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,390	$1.74	14d	1	1.22mi
1754 J St Unit 09 Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	774	$1,195	$1.54	21d	1	1.24mi
2665 C St Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	572	$1,795	$3.14	14d	1	1.36mi
1253 R St Unit 4 Springfield, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	44d	1	1.40mi
1217 R St #5 Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	21d	1	1.42mi
1201 R St Unit 3 Springfield, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	44d	1	1.45mi
4086 B St Springfield, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	901	$1,750	$1.94	14d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $14,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $14,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $14,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $17,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $17,500 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Affordable Opportunity with Instant Equity Potential! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a family park. Monthly space rent is $1179. This home is perfect for someone handy and ready to invest a little sweat equity. With some repairs and updates, you could gain instant equity and make this home truly your own. Cash only. Enjoy the convenience of being near parks, schools, scenic walking/biking trails, and quick freeway access—ideal for both families and commuters. Don’t miss this opportunity to own at an affordable price. Cash only.

16. 2026-04-06
    listed $21,200 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Affordable Opportunity with Instant Equity Potential! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a family park. Monthly space rent is $1179. This home is perfect for someone handy and ready to invest a little sweat equity. With some repairs and updates, you could gain instant equity and make this home truly your own. Cash only. Enjoy the convenience of being near parks, schools, scenic walking/biking trails, and quick freeway access—ideal for both families and commuters. Don’t miss this opportunity to own at an affordable price. Cash only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$784
• − Property taxes: −$210
• − Insurance: −$70
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$407
• Taxable income: $14,859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,566
• After-tax cash flow: $10,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111670
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,236
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7746
• State rank: #48 of 58 in OR

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #934

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, OR
• County: Lane County · 310,476 people
• City population: 76,907
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• Population (ZIP): 37,534
• Household income: $65,662
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -489.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6863
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $17,500 RMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $21,200 RMLS

Property tax history

-46.4%/yr

Latest (2015): $6 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.