228 Flying Tiger Trl · Sonterra, TX 76537

$232,245

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,381 sqft · Other · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,573 sqft lot $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

Key facts

• Gardenia floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Stylish island

Tags

• GARDENIA FLOOR PLAN
• STYLISH ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO-SINK VANITY
• STANDING SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Sonterra West; HOA fee $240 annually; Community features include common grounds, park, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; Single garage door; Inside entrance to home; Driveway parking; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces, including garage)
• Security: Pre-wired; Security system
• Utilities: Municipal Utility District water; Municipal Utility District sewer
• Home design: 2 stories; Faces northwest; Under construction
• Construction: Built by DR Horton; Composition/shingle roof; Blown-in insulation; Radiant barrier; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered porch; Community pool; Back yard fencing (wood privacy fencing); Front yard; Sprinklers in front; Level lot; In-ground sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Interior steps; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s); ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Accessibility features: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($471/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $189,174 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,743
• Equity at exit: $34,628

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-53,946
• Equity at exit: $20,080

Cash invested: $65,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,218
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $232,245

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $105	+0% $39	+5% $-27	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-36	+0% $39	+5% $114	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $98	base $39	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,061
• Closing costs: $6,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.13mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	0.20mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.21mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.27mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.28mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.31mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.34mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.40mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.92mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.94mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	1.03mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.08mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.08mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.11mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.17mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.22mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.31mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	45d	1	1.34mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.34mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.44mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.47mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.47mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,245 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,245 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,245 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,245 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,245 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,245 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,245 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,245 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $232,245 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,245 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,245 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,245 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,245 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,245 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $232,195 1283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

    Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

16. 2026-04-24
    listed $232,245 Active 1283-char remark
17. 2026-03-31
    listed $232,245 Active 1283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

    Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,250 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,803/yr (+$234/mo · 193.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,009
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,161
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,756
• Taxable loss: −$3,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$851
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Sonterra, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the exterior and interior to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $232,195 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Listed $232,245 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $232,245 Zillow

Property tax history

-15.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,447 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.