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228 Flying Tiger Trl
D+ Composite 46.52
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +16.5/30.0
  • ARV discount +9.0/15.0
  • DSCR +5.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.6/5.0
  • Schools +2.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.1/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$212,195

228 Flying Tiger Trl · Jarrell, TX 76537
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,381 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 4,573 sqft lot Garage $154/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Gardenia floor plan, a beautifully designed two-story home in our Cool Water community in Jarrell, TX. This home spans approximately 1,381 square feet, complete with 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath, and a spacious two-car garage. As you step inside, you're greeted by a welcoming front foyer that seamlessly flows into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. The kitchen features a stylish island, providing extra storage space and seating options for added convenience. Upstairs, you'll discover a well-designed layout starting with a dedicated laundry room that includes a shelf for additional storage. To the right of the staircase, two secondary bedrooms each come with their own walk-in closet, offering plenty of storage space. The secondary bathroom features a shower and tub combo and a one-sink vanity, designed for both comfort and practicality. Further down the hallway, the primary bedroom awaits, located towards the front of the home for added privacy. The adjoining primary bathroom offers a two-sink vanity, a standing shower, and a spacious walk-in closet, ensuring you have all the room you need. Discover how the Gardenia can be the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to make it yours!

Key facts

  • Gardenia floor plan
  • Walk-in closet
  • Stylish island

Tags

GARDENIA FLOOR PLANSTYLISH ISLANDDEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOMWALK-IN CLOSETTWO-SINK VANITYSTANDING SHOWER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (12.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $185k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Recommended offer $185,475 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.87%
Cap rate
6.99%
Cash-on-cash
2.49%
DSCR
1.11
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$219,499
List price
$212,195
Delta
-3.33%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
132 Star Packer Ln 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,409 (+2%) 0mo $211,499 $150 89
153 Starpacker Ln 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,418 (+3%) 2mo $209,999 $148 86
149 Starpacker Ln 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,418 (+3%) 2mo $204,999 $145 86
124 Star Packer Ln 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,418 (+3%) 2mo $209,999 $148 86
137 Starpacker Ln 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,418 (+3%) 2mo $209,999 $148 86
229 Brannigan Dr 0.27mi 3/2.0 1,402 (+2%) 0mo $236,990 $169 83
525 Old Western Pass 0.24mi 3/2.0 1,412 (+2%) 0mo $230,190 $163 83
140 Star Packer Ln 0.11mi 3/2.0 1,273 (-8%) 0mo $201,999 $159 80
117 Starpacker Ln 0.16mi 3/2.0 1,273 (-8%) 2mo $201,999 $159 76
512 Old Western Pass 0.22mi 3/2.0 1,522 (+10%) 0mo $230,990 $152 70
541 Old Western Pass 0.23mi 3/2.0 1,522 (+10%) 1mo $198,806 $131 70
125 Hatari Trl 0.65mi 3/2.0 1,501 (+9%) 0mo $254,990 $170 53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-15.5%
Equity multiple
0.46×
Total profit
$-32,004
Equity at exit
$31,639
10-year hold
IRR
-12.7%
Equity multiple
0.34×
Total profit
$-38,944
Equity at exit
$18,347

Cash invested: $59,415 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
69 active · 30 under contract
Months of supply
11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$237,999 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market
46 d
This list price
3% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-0.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

Home prices YoY
-14.4%
Rents YoY
-1.7%
Active inventory
915
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,855 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,113
Tax from tax record
$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
Insurance
$88
HOA
$20
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$389
Net cashflow
$123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698
Max offer price $212,195
Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $244 -5% $184 +0% $123 +5% $63 +10% $3
Rent -10% $-23 -5% $50 +0% $123 +5% $197 +10% $270
Rate -1.0pp $230 -0.5pp $177 base $123 +0.5pp $69 +1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$53,049
Closing costs
$6,366
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 33 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1418 $1,700 $1.20 16d 1 0.12mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1418 $1,700 $1.20 9d 1 0.13mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1409 $1,700 $1.21 46d 1 0.13mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1418 $1,700 $1.20 9d 1 0.14mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1417 $1,500 $1.06 32d 1 0.18mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX 2.0 1.0 900 $1,500 $1.67 51d 1 0.20mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1667 $1,900 $1.14 57d 1 0.21mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1531 $1,800 $1.18 93d 1 0.27mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1855 $2,000 $1.08 52d 1 0.28mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1855 $1,830 $0.99 13d 1 0.28mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX 3.0–5.0 2.0–3.5 1773 $2,055 $1.16 9d 1 0.31mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,650 $1.14 9d 1 0.34mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1580 $2,210 $1.40 65d 1 0.40mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1305 $2,095 $1.61 31d 1 0.41mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1413 $1,700 $1.20 30d 1 0.50mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1243 $1,650 $1.33 67d 1 0.92mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1214 $1,700 $1.40 93d 1 0.94mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,799 $1.20 41d 1 1.03mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1761 $1,850 $1.05 21d 1 1.07mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1251 $1,495 $1.20 65d 1 1.08mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1251 $1,495 $1.20 68d 1 1.08mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.5 1619 $2,000 $1.24 93d 1 1.11mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.5 1674 $1,900 $1.14 93d 1 1.17mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1288 $1,795 $1.39 9d 1 1.22mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1586 $1,750 $1.10 53d 1 1.31mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX 4.0 2.0 1764 $1,750 $0.99 18d 1 1.32mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1214 $1,695 $1.40 93d 1 1.34mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1641 $1,650 $1.01 93d 1 1.34mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,799 $1.24 73d 1 1.44mi
167 McNamara Ct Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1263 $1,795 $1.42 18d 1 1.45mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1276 $1,600 $1.25 41d 1 1.47mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1357 $1,650 $1.22 67d 1 1.47mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX 3.0 2.0 1450 $1,650 $1.14 64d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Homeowners association: Sonterra WestHOA fee $240 annuallyCommunity features include common grounds, park, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

Parking
Attached garageGarage faces frontSingle garage doorInside entrance to homeDriveway parking2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces, including garage)
Security
Pre-wiredSecurity system
Utilities
Municipal Utility District waterMunicipal Utility District sewer
Home design
2 storiesFaces northwestUnder construction
Construction
Built by DR HortonComposition/shingle roofBlown-in insulationRadiant barrierSlab foundation
Exterior features
Private yardCovered porchCommunity poolBack yard fencing (wood privacy fencing)Front yardSprinklers in frontLevel lotIn-ground sprinklers

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherFree-standing electric ovenFree-standing electric rangeStainless steel appliancesElectric water heater
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air
Interior features
Ceiling fan(s)Entrance foyerInterior stepsKitchen islandOpen floorplanStone countersWalk-in closet(s)ENERGY STAR qualified windowsAccessibility features: see remarks
Laundry & utility
Laundry room on upper levelWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $20/mo · $240/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $212,195 Active 106 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $212,195 Active 104 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $212,195 Active 103 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $212,195 Active 102 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $212,195 Active 101 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $212,195 Active 98 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $212,195 Active 97 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $212,195 Active 96 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $212,195 Active 95 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $212,195 Active 93 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $212,195 Active 91 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $212,195 Active 90 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $212,195 Active 89 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $212,195 Active 88 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $212,195 Active 87 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $212,195 Active 85 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $212,195 Active 84 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $212,195 Active 83 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $212,195 Active 82 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $212,195 Active 81 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $212,195 Active 80 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $212,195 Active 79 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $212,195 Active 78 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $212,195 Active 77 DOM
  25. 2026-07-10
    price $212,195 Active 76 DOM
  26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $214,695 Active 76 DOM
  27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $214,695 Active 74 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,695 Active 73 DOM
  29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $214,695 Active 72 DOM
  30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $214,695 Active 70 DOM
  31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $214,695 Active 69 DOM
  32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $214,695 Active 68 DOM
  33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $214,695 Active 67 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $214,695 Active 66 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $214,695 Active 65 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $214,695 Active 64 DOM
  37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $214,695 Active 63 DOM
  38. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $214,695 Active 61 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $232,245 Active 59 DOM
  40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $232,245 Active 58 DOM
  41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $232,245 Active 55 DOM
  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $232,245 Active 54 DOM
  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $232,245 Active 53 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $232,245 Active 52 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $232,245 Active 50 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $232,245 Active 46 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,245 Active 45 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $232,245 Active 44 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,245 Active 41 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,245 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$1,447 · $121/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$3,883 · $324/mo
Expected delta
+$2,436/yr (+$203/mo · 168.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$22,257
− Mortgage interest
−$11,886
− Property taxes
−$1,447
− Insurance
−$1,061
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,781
− Management
−$1,781
− HOA
−$240
− Depreciation
−$6,173
Taxable loss
−$2,111
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$507
After-tax cash flow
$1,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Sonterra, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to the exterior and interior to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
  • Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers.
  • Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers.
F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Jarrell ISD
NCES district ID
4824600
Math proficiency
19% ▼ -18.00%
Reading proficiency
28% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$57,132
Composite
21.47/100
National rank
#8335
State rank
#713 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

Score
71/100
State rank
#313
US rank
#7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Williamson County · 699,027 people
City population
16,272
Metro
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP)
16,272
Household income
$98,199
Rent vs Own
20.5% rent · 79.5% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
699,027 people
By 2030
795,537 · +13.8%
By 2040
990,683 · +41.7%
By 2050
1,184,292 · +69.4%
By 2075
1,623,825 · +132.3%
By 2100
1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity
White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-0.0% since first listed
3 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-02 Price Changed $232,195 Zillow
  • 2026-04-24 Listed $232,245 Unlock MLS
  • 2026-03-31 Listed $232,245 Zillow

Property tax history

-15.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,447 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…