398 Guy Ct · Irvington, KY 40142

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other · 47 Days on market

Built 1997 1.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * First Time Homeowners * * Quiet, peaceful country living is where you'll be with this home. Renovations and upgrades have been completed: New front and rear porch/deck, New bathroom vanities with a new tub/shower combo, New kitchen cabinets and appliances, New floors, and fresh paint throughout! You'll love the large front yard with pine grove to create a private space perfect for you. Storage is no problem with the large 14x30 lofted storage shed.

Key facts

• 1.86 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Guy Farm Estates
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; No designated garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Single-family style
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Therapeutic whirlpool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.2% in Irvington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $135k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $116,189 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $46,230
• Equity at exit: $85,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $130,689
• Equity at exit: $156,804

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40142

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $137	+0% $99	+5% $61	+10% $22
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $53	+0% $99	+5% $145	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $133	base $99	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $135,000 Active 459-char remark
19. 2025-07-10
    price $125,000
20. 2024-12-31
    historical
21. 2024-07-10
    price $129,000
22. 2024-07-10
    price $129,000
23. 2024-06-06
    listed $145,000 Active
24. 2024-04-08
    soldstatus $58,000
25. 2024-04-05
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed
26. 2024-01-29
    status Pending
27. 2024-01-21
    listed $75,000 Active
28. 2014-10-16
    historical
29. 2014-08-05
    listed $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$502/yr (+$42/mo · 76.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $1,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Irvington

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,213

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Russian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 252.0176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+128.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $135,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $125,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed $129,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed $129,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-06-06 Listed $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-05 Sold (MLS) $58,000 HKARMLS
• 2024-01-29 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2024-01-21 Listed $75,000 HKARMLS
• 2014-10-16 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2014-08-05 Listed $59,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+24.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +52.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.