33 Bluebird Hill Dr · Orion, MI 48359

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot $63/sqft · 65% below area $856/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover waterfront living in the desirable Orion Lakes Manufactured Home Community. This 2018 manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a comfortable, modern layout designed for everyday living. The beautiful kitchen sits at the heart of the home and features ample cabinetry and all appliances included, even a water softener. Enjoy peaceful pond views from the expansive composite front deck, creating the perfect space to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom for added comfort and convenience. The community offers outstanding amenities including a playground, basketball and volleyball courts, and a covered pavilion for gatherings. Conveniently located near Bald Mountain State Recreation Area, Great Lakes Crossing, and with easy access to I-75 for a quick commute. This home is move-in ready. Lot rent is $856 per month and there are no property taxes. Pets are allowed. Buyers must be approved by the community after an accepted offer. Manufactured home financing is available (contact listing agent for lender information). Agents, no special license is required to bring a buyer.

Key facts

• Beautiful kitchen
• Ample cabinetry
• Modern layout

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• MODERN LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• POND VIEWS
• EXPANSIVE COMPOSITE FRONT DECK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $85,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$242,347) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.69%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,347
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -64.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $30,617
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $85,393
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48359

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$856
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 Heron Springs Blvd Orion Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1914	$3,535	$1.85	2d	8	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $856 · $10,272/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $85,000 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    Discover waterfront living in the desirable Orion Lakes Manufactured Home Community. This 2018 manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a comfortable, modern layout designed for everyday living. The beautiful kitchen sits at the heart of the home and features ample cabinetry and all appliances included, even a water softener. Enjoy peaceful pond views from the expansive composite front deck, creating the perfect space to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom for added comfort and convenience. The community offers outstanding amenities including a playground, basketball and volleyball courts, and a covered pavilion for gatherings. Conveniently located near Bald Mountain State Recreation Area, Great Lakes Crossing, and with easy access to I-75 for a quick commute. This home is move-in ready. Lot rent is $856 per month and there are no property taxes. Pets are allowed. Buyers must be approved by the community after an accepted offer. Manufactured home financing is available (contact listing agent for lender information). Agents, no special license is required to bring a buyer.

16. 2026-04-12
    price $85,000 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    Discover waterfront living in the desirable Orion Lakes Manufactured Home Community. This 2018 manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a comfortable, modern layout designed for everyday living. The beautiful kitchen sits at the heart of the home and features ample cabinetry and all appliances included, even a water softener. Enjoy peaceful pond views from the expansive composite front deck, creating the perfect space to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom for added comfort and convenience. The community offers outstanding amenities including a playground, basketball and volleyball courts, and a covered pavilion for gatherings. Conveniently located near Bald Mountain State Recreation Area, Great Lakes Crossing, and with easy access to I-75 for a quick commute. This home is move-in ready. Lot rent is $856 per month and there are no property taxes. Pets are allowed. Buyers must be approved by the community after an accepted offer. Manufactured home financing is available (contact listing agent for lender information). Agents, no special license is required to bring a buyer.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $89,900 Active 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    Discover waterfront living in the desirable Orion Lakes Manufactured Home Community. This 2018 manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a comfortable, modern layout designed for everyday living. The beautiful kitchen sits at the heart of the home and features ample cabinetry and all appliances included, even a water softener. Enjoy peaceful pond views from the expansive composite front deck, creating the perfect space to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom for added comfort and convenience. The community offers outstanding amenities including a playground, basketball and volleyball courts, and a covered pavilion for gatherings. Conveniently located near Bald Mountain State Recreation Area, Great Lakes Crossing, and with easy access to I-75 for a quick commute. This home is move-in ready. Lot rent is $856 per month and there are no property taxes. Pets are allowed. Buyers must be approved by the community after an accepted offer. Manufactured home financing is available (contact listing agent for lender information). Agents, no special license is required to bring a buyer.

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $89,900 Active 1141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    Discover waterfront living in the desirable Orion Lakes Manufactured Home Community. This 2018 manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a comfortable, modern layout designed for everyday living. The beautiful kitchen sits at the heart of the home and features ample cabinetry and all appliances included, even a water softener. Enjoy peaceful pond views from the expansive composite front deck, creating the perfect space to relax or entertain. The primary bedroom features a private bathroom for added comfort and convenience. The community offers outstanding amenities including a playground, basketball and volleyball courts, and a covered pavilion for gatherings. Conveniently located near Bald Mountain State Recreation Area, Great Lakes Crossing, and with easy access to I-75 for a quick commute. This home is move-in ready. Lot rent is $856 per month and there are no property taxes. Pets are allowed. Buyers must be approved by the community after an accepted offer. Manufactured home financing is available (contact listing agent for lender information). Agents, no special license is required to bring a buyer.

19. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus $72,659 Sold
20. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus $72,659 Closed
21. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus $72,659
22. 2024-08-22
    status Pending
23. 2024-08-22
    status Pending
24. 2024-08-02
    listed $84,900 Active
25. 2024-08-02
    listed $84,900 Active
26. 2024-08-02
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − HOA: −$10,272
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $6,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2018 manufactured home in Orion Lakes is in good condition with a modern kitchen and good curb appeal. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add value and appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pontiac City School District
• NCES district ID: 2628740
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,888
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9802
• State rank: #514 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 10,401
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,401
• Household income: $93,125
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.39%
• Current HPI: 168.0362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $72,659 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $72,659 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $72,659 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-02 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $84,900 REALCOMP