306 Breeze Mdw · Fairburn, GA 30213

$280,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,821 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2004 5,998 sqft lot $154/sqft · 5% below area Est $295k · 5% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this gem situated in a highly desirable area experiencing strong growth and expansion. This spacious property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a functional layout with bright, open living areas and a well-maintained backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located close to major roads, shopping, dining, and essential services, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent long-term value. A must-see property don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-135/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Fairburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#291 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amana Academy School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 731 students, 30% FRL, charter); Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 41% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; list at $280k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,850 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,159
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -5.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
92 Revere Turn	0.20mi	4/3.0	1,971 (+8%)	1mo	$295,000	$150	74
167 Fairhaven Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (+8%)	6mo	$295,000	$150	74
150 Fairhaven Trl	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,605 (-12%)	5mo	$282,000	$176	72
3172 Broadleaf Trl	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,784 (-2%)	2mo	$283,000	$159	70
132 Revere Turn	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,902 (+4%)	8mo	$282,000	$148	66
8505 Garvey Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,668 (-8%)	8mo	$253,000	$152	65
125 Fairhaven Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-12%)	10mo	$227,000	$141	65
50 Camden Way	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (-12%)	2mo	$274,990	$171	62
8170 Autumn Green Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-9%)	9mo	$257,500	$155	61
203 Arran Pt	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,740 (-4%)	19mo	$289,900	$167	60
74 Camden Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-8%)	22mo	$268,000	$159	56
352 Lauren Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+5%)	22mo	$325,000	$170	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,202
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,547
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30213

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,363

Max offer price $278,009

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $68	+0% $-11	+5% $-91	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-104	+0% $-11	+5% $81	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $60	base $-11	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
154 Fairhaven Trl Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,190	$1.39	3d	1	0.06mi
3076 Broadleaf Trl Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,855	$1.35	3d	1	0.27mi
214 Ben Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,035	$1.09	3d	1	0.30mi
111 Jaclyn Way Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	1681	$2,245	$1.34	45d	1	0.34mi
2155 Shortleaf Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1784	$2,130	$1.19	7d	1	0.35mi
5474 Oakley Industrial Blvd Fairburn, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,893	$1.89	0d	14	0.40mi
5500 Oakley Industrial Blvd Fairburn, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,835	$1.74	0d	14	0.48mi
7000 Renaissance Pkwy Fairburn, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,963	$2.83	0d	12	0.52mi
7740 Baron Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1911	$2,650	$1.39	14d	1	0.60mi
7784 Baron Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1911	$2,460	$1.29	45d	1	0.62mi
7823 Canterbury Ct Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	2136	$2,200	$1.03	26d	1	0.65mi
5617 Oakley Industrial Blvd Fairburn, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1558	$4,431	$2.84	0d	50	0.72mi
7599 Avalon Blvd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,039	$1.24	4d	1	0.80mi
5472 Festival Ave Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,100	$1.28	14d	1	0.81mi
5472 Festival Ave Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,100	$1.28	7d	1	0.81mi
225 Club Dr Fayetteville, GA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1400	$1,919	$1.37	7d	1	0.83mi
7744 Rutgers Cir Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1936	$2,350	$1.21	4d	1	0.85mi
7744 Rutgers Cir Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1936	$2,350	$1.21	0d	1	0.85mi
7915 Senoia Rd Fairburn, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,950	$1.89	0d	16	0.91mi
330 Avalon Sq Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	2047	$2,950	$1.44	26d	1	0.91mi
3020 Meadow Glen Pass Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	5d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $280,000 Active 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Welcome home to this gem situated in a highly desirable area experiencing strong growth and expansion. This spacious property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a functional layout with bright, open living areas and a well-maintained backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located close to major roads, shopping, dining, and essential services, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent long-term value. A must-see property don't miss this opportunity!

4. 2026-05-08
   listed $280,000 New 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Welcome home to this gem situated in a highly desirable area experiencing strong growth and expansion. This spacious property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a functional layout with bright, open living areas and a well-maintained backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located close to major roads, shopping, dining, and essential services, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent long-term value. A must-see property don't miss this opportunity!

5. 2026-04-08
   historical $280,000 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Welcome home to this gem situated in a highly desirable area experiencing strong growth and expansion. This spacious property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a functional layout with bright, open living areas and a well-maintained backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located close to major roads, shopping, dining, and essential services, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent long-term value. A must-see property don't miss this opportunity!

6. 2026-04-08
   historical $280,000 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Welcome home to this gem situated in a highly desirable area experiencing strong growth and expansion. This spacious property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms. Enjoy a functional layout with bright, open living areas and a well-maintained backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Located close to major roads, shopping, dining, and essential services, this home offers comfort, convenience, and excellent long-term value. A must-see property don't miss this opportunity!

7. 2025-02-03
   historical
8. 2024-11-25
   price $232,000
9. 2024-10-04
   historical
10. 2024-10-02
    price $255,000
11. 2024-09-09
    historical
12. 2024-09-07
    listed $255,000 New
13. 2024-09-07
    listed $280,000 New
14. 2024-09-07
    listed $280,000 Active
15. 2024-09-03
    historical
16. 2024-08-17
    listed $300,000 New
17. 2020-01-08
    soldstatus $163,000
18. 2020-01-06
    soldstatus $163,000 Sold
19. 2019-11-14
    status Under Contract
20. 2019-10-31
    listed $163,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #15939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairburn, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 50,621
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $94,125
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1025.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.66%
• Current HPI: 235.9372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+70.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $280,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $280,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $280,000 FMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $232,000 GAMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $280,000 FMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-07 Listed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-08-17 Listed $300,000 GAMLS
• 2020-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-06 Sold (MLS) $163,000 GAMLS
• 2019-11-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2019-10-31 Listed $163,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,983 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.