3921 Bragg Ct · Columbia, MO 65202

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 $148/sqft · 24% below area Est $264k · 24% under $250/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUYER MUST MEET CCLT PURCHASE REQUIREMENTS AND WILL BE REQUIRED TO SIGN A GROUND LEASE. SOME BUYERS MAY ALSO BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE CITY HOMEOWNERSHIP ASSISTANCE PROGRAM. Brand new two story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an attached one car garage. The main level features an open floor plan with a well equipped kitchen offering stainless steel appliances and plenty of cabinet and countertop space. All bedrooms and the laundry are upstairs. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath with a dual sink vanity, shower, and a walk in closet. Enjoy the back patio for outdoor relaxing and entertaining. Buyer to verify all facts and information including but not limited to schools, taxes, sq. footage, room sizes, program requirements & restrictions, fees, etc.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Ensuite bath
• Garage

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• PLENTY OF COUNTERTOP SPACE
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elem. (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,005 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 419 students, 68% FRL); John B. Lange Middle (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #350 of 391 statewide, top 90%, 529 students, 65% FRL); Muriel W. Battle High School (math 7% / reading 47%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 1,581 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia 93 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $155,268 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,759
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -24.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3917 Bragg Ct	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,411 (+4%)	9mo	$279,900	$198	85
3909 Bragg Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,411 (+4%)	11mo	$279,900	$198	82
2805 Shingo Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+3%)	2mo	$259,900	$186	78
3916 Bragg Ct	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,498 (+11%)	12mo	$259,900	$173	71
3315 N Ridgecrest Dr	0.37mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,390 (+3%)	2mo	$315,000	$227	69
4217 Langham Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+1%)	5mo	$245,000	$179	62
4204 Fourwinds Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+11%)	7mo	$259,900	$173	62
4301 Culpeper Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	11mo	$279,000	$185	53
3001 Brown Station Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,251 (-8%)	3mo	$210,000	$168	49
2508 Olive St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (+7%)	2mo	$186,000	$129	48
2501 Spruce Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,554 (+15%)	3mo	$270,000	$174	44
2300 Paw Print Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+14%)	10mo	$290,000	$187	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-43,604
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,437
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,882

Max offer price $155,268

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-196	+0% $-253	+5% $-309	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-314	+0% $-253	+5% $-191	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-202	base $-253	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 Jenne Hill Dr Columbia, MO	3.0–4.0	2.5	1384	$1,495	$1.08	15d	9	0.59mi
3101 Jenne Hill Dr Unit 3209 Columbia, MO	3.0	2.5	1268	$1,495	$1.18	23d	1	0.59mi
1610 Typhoon Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,750	$1.23	45d	1	0.79mi
1602 Typhoon Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	23d	1	0.84mi
2800 Mexico Gravel Rd Unit A Columbia, MO	3.0	1.5	1313	$1,375	$1.05	23d	1	0.88mi
1521 Typhoon Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	45d	1	0.89mi
1602 High Quest Cir Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	45d	1	0.90mi
4305 Derby Ridge Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	45d	1	0.90mi
1635 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	45d	1	0.97mi
1627 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	45d	1	0.99mi
2403 Calico Ln Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	23d	1	1.04mi
2401 Calico Ln Unit 2401 Columbia, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.05mi
1613 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,275	$1.02	45d	1	1.05mi
1601-1603 Bold Ruler Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	15d	1	1.05mi
1605 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	45d	1	1.05mi
1615 Kittyhawk Dr Unit 1615-3 Columbia, MO	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	45d	1	1.14mi
1516 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.15mi
1311 Raleigh Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,625	$1.01	15d	1	1.23mi
4916 Brown Station Rd Unit 1B Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1064	$938	$0.88	23d	1	1.24mi
1302 E Brown School Rd Columbia, MO	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,625	$1.01	45d	1	1.27mi
1524 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	45d	1	1.40mi
1432 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	45d	1	1.40mi
1500 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	23d	1	1.40mi
1424 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	45d	1	1.41mi
3617-3619 Greeley Dr Unit 3619 Columbia, MO	3.0	1.5	1029	$895	$0.87	23d	1	1.43mi
1507 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.43mi
1419 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.44mi
1417 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	46d	1	1.44mi
1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.46mi
1401-1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	23d	1	1.46mi
1505 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	1.46mi
5211 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.47mi
5301 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1374	$1,495	$1.09	45d	1	1.48mi
1427 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	15d	1	1.48mi
5305 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.49mi
5305 Currituck Ln Unit 5305 Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	15d	1	1.49mi
5307 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.49mi
5309-5311 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-04-10
   listed $220,000 Active 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   BUYER MUST MEET CCLT PURCHASE REQUIREMENTS AND WILL BE REQUIRED TO SIGN A GROUND LEASE. SOME BUYERS MAY ALSO BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE CITY HOMEOWNERSHIP ASSISTANCE PROGRAM. Brand new two story home with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an attached one car garage. The main level features an open floor plan with a well equipped kitchen offering stainless steel appliances and plenty of cabinet and countertop space. All bedrooms and the laundry are upstairs. The primary suite includes an ensuite bath with a dual sink vanity, shower, and a walk in closet. Enjoy the back patio for outdoor relaxing and entertaining. Buyer to verify all facts and information including but not limited to schools, taxes, sq. footage, room sizes, program requirements & restrictions, fees, etc.

7. 2026-03-18
   soldstatus
8. 2026-03-17
   soldstatus Closed 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Check out this 2-story new construction home built by Hemme Construction in The Cottages of Northridge! Located in Northern Columbia, this new development is close to shops and restaurants and is located in the Blue Ridge Elementary, Oakland Middle School, and Battle High School districts. These 16 lots sit on a quiet street, ensuring privacy and safety for your family. The main level features a spacious open floor plan while the upper level includes the primary suite (including full bath & walk in closet), 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath, and laundry room. 95% High efficiency furnace. * 10 YEAR HOME WARRANTY INCLUDED. *

9. 2026-02-19
   status Pending 637-char remark

   Show marketing remark (637 chars)

   Check out this 2-story new construction home built by Hemme Construction in The Cottages of Northridge! Located in Northern Columbia, this new development is close to shops and restaurants and is located in the Blue Ridge Elementary, Oakland Middle School, and Battle High School districts. These 16 lots sit on a quiet street, ensuring privacy and safety for your family. The main level features a spacious open floor plan while the upper level includes the primary suite (including full bath & walk in closet), 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath, and laundry room. 95% High efficiency furnace. * 10 YEAR HOME WARRANTY INCLUDED. *

10. 2026-01-16
    listed $269,900 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Check out this 2-story new construction home built by Hemme Construction in The Cottages of Northridge! Located in Northern Columbia, this new development is close to shops and restaurants and is located in the Blue Ridge Elementary, Oakland Middle School, and Battle High School districts. These 16 lots sit on a quiet street, ensuring privacy and safety for your family. The main level features a spacious open floor plan while the upper level includes the primary suite (including full bath & walk in closet), 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath, and laundry room. 95% High efficiency furnace. * 10 YEAR HOME WARRANTY INCLUDED. *

11. 2025-05-22
    listed $269,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MO
• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-18.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $220,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-17 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $269,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $269,900 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+162.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · +585.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.