422 Little John Rd · Hurlburt Field, FL 32569

$1,909

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Wynnehaven Beach Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Driveway with about 4 parking spaces; Garage with automatic door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; TV cable available; Phone service available
• Home design: Single-story A-frame style home; Built in 2021; Entry and main living areas on the first floor
• Construction: Frame and brick construction with vinyl trim; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Lawn pump; Sprinkler system; Covered patio/porch; Interior, level lot; Paved county road frontage and access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range hood; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the first floor with walk-in closet, carpeted flooring, double vanity, garden tub, separate shower, and tile finishes
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double vanity, garden tub, separate shower, and tile
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs; Built-in shelving; Washer/dryer hookup; Painted woodwork; Double-pane windows; Doors with energy-efficient features; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry room; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $1,909 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,535.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-832 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 4.6% in Hurlburt Field — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 294.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,909

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.52%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,535
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 Al Hammett Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (-0%)	0mo	$377,000	$205	81
899 Al Hammett Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,882 (+2%)	1mo	$395,000	$210	76
305 Friar Tuck Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,757 (-5%)	8mo	$366,500	$209	70
801 Forest Cove Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,702 (-8%)	1mo	$345,900	$203	64
803 Forest Cove Ct	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+4%)	3mo	$390,000	$203	64
109 Dolphin Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+3%)	11mo	$385,000	$202	60
217 Lakeside Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-1%)	11mo	$368,000	$202	59
232 Lakeside Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-8%)	4mo	$275,000	$163	53
228 Lakeside Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-10%)	2mo	$358,000	$215	53
725 Marsh Harbor Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,015 (+9%)	7mo	$345,900	$172	37
266 Tecumseh Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,079 (+13%)	9mo	$385,000	$185	36
732 Saltair Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,091 (+13%)	2mo	$545,000	$261	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-120,161
• Equity at exit: $55,844

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-197,908
• Equity at exit: $32,383

Cash invested: $104,870 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,964
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,618/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,276

Max offer price $254,149

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,634
• Closing costs: $11,236
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1020 Pinetree Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,200	$1.66	44d	1	0.26mi
499 Spring Brook Ln Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,850	$1.20	44d	1	0.36mi
377 Miranda Ct Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.5	2334	$2,650	$1.14	21d	1	0.37mi
116 Dolphin Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	44d	1	0.50mi
199 Lakeside Ln Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,000	$1.29	14d	1	0.57mi
711 Marsh Harbor Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,195	$1.37	44d	1	0.72mi
494 Cascabellas St Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.83mi
32 Cascabellas St Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,875	$1.26	21d	1	0.84mi
771 Pearl Sand Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,100	$1.18	14d	1	0.87mi
20 Stowe Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	21d	1	0.97mi
46 Kathleen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	21d	1	0.97mi
495 Keystone Rd Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,650	$1.28	44d	1	0.99mi
471 Keystone Rd Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,695	$1.27	21d	1	0.99mi
469 Westgate Way Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.5	1544	$2,150	$1.39	44d	1	1.09mi
432 Bridgewater Ct Mary Esther, FL	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,350	$0.98	44d	1	1.15mi
3007 Bob White Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,300	$1.37	14d	1	1.31mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,000	$1.45	44d	1	1.36mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-29
   listed $1,909 Active
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $2,500
3. 2021-10-26
   soldstatus $374,900 Sold 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

4. 2021-10-26
   soldstatus $374,900 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

5. 2021-09-27
   status Pending 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

6. 2021-08-13
   listed $374,900 Active 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

7. 2021-08-12
   listed $374,900 760-char remark

   Show marketing remark (760 chars)

   Completion by the end of Sep! SAVE MORE BY BUYING NEW! LOWER INSURANCE AND LOWER UTILITY BILLS! Buying New saves $$$ on utilities & insurance! Located close to Bases, Beaches and Shopping!!! This Affordable BRAND NEW HOME is Loaded w/Extras! ALL COLOR CHOICES HAVE BEEN MADE. Quartz Composite Countertops in Kitchen, Breakfast Bar, White Cabinets, Quality Fixtures, 10x20 back porch, wood look tile floors in foyer, kitchen, baths and Laundry Room. Master Bedroom is nicely sized. Tiled Shower in Master Bath and a separate tub. Kitchen has abundant, High-Quality wood cabinets with Soft close drawers. Solid Surface Countertops in Kitchen and Baths. Privacy Fence with one gate is included. Covered Lanai in Back. Call to view this Beautiful home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,980
• − Property taxes: −$5,618
• − Insurance: −$1,873
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − Depreciation: −$10,896
• Taxable loss: −$16,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,069
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hurlburt Field

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 2,344
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $1,909 ECAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2021-10-26 Sold (MLS) $374,900 NAMLS
• 2021-10-26 Sold (MLS) $374,900 ECAR
• 2021-09-27 Pending — ECAR
• 2021-08-13 Listed $374,900 ECAR
• 2021-08-12 Listed $374,900 NAMLS

Property tax history

+94.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,234 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.