1527 Vanessa Gold Ct · Barrett, TX 77532

$228,875

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · Land · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 $168/sqft · 10% below area Est $253k · 10% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oak Floor Plan by Castlerock Communities! This well designed home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with a beautiful elevation for timeless curb appeal. Step inside through a mahogany front door into a bright interior where vinyl plank wood flooring flows throughout an open-concept layout with high ceilings. The gourmet kitchen features Lyra quartz countertops, white tile backsplash, 42' Shaker cabinets, deep undermount sink, an upgraded faucet, and stainless-steel gas appliances. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a massive shower and spacous walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath with a tub and shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. Energy Star Certified with a tankless on-demand water heater. Located in the beautiful Sweetgrass Village community with parks, a clubhouse, pickleball courts, and a swimming pool.

Key facts

• 42 shaker cabinets
• Upgraded faucet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LYRA QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE TILE BACKSPLASH
• 42 SHAKER CABINETS
• DEEP UNDERMOUNT SINK
• UPGRADED FAUCET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($25/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,892 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,990
• List price: $228,875
• Delta: -9.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,858
• Equity at exit: $34,126

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,093
• Equity at exit: $19,789

Cash invested: $64,085 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,161/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $228,875

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $67	+0% $2	+5% $-63	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-74	+0% $2	+5% $78	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $60	base $2	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,219
• Closing costs: $6,866
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 894-char remark

   Show marketing remark (894 chars)

   The Oak Floor Plan by Castlerock Communities! This well designed home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with a beautiful elevation for timeless curb appeal. Step inside through a mahogany front door into a bright interior where vinyl plank wood flooring flows throughout an open-concept layout with high ceilings. The gourmet kitchen features Lyra quartz countertops, white tile backsplash, 42' Shaker cabinets, deep undermount sink, an upgraded faucet, and stainless-steel gas appliances. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a massive shower and spacous walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath with a tub and shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. Energy Star Certified with a tankless on-demand water heater. Located in the beautiful Sweetgrass Village community with parks, a clubhouse, pickleball courts, and a swimming pool.

2. 2026-03-13
   listed $228,875 Active 894-char remark

   Show marketing remark (894 chars)

   The Oak Floor Plan by Castlerock Communities! This well designed home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with a beautiful elevation for timeless curb appeal. Step inside through a mahogany front door into a bright interior where vinyl plank wood flooring flows throughout an open-concept layout with high ceilings. The gourmet kitchen features Lyra quartz countertops, white tile backsplash, 42' Shaker cabinets, deep undermount sink, an upgraded faucet, and stainless-steel gas appliances. The private primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a massive shower and spacous walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bath with a tub and shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio. Energy Star Certified with a tankless on-demand water heater. Located in the beautiful Sweetgrass Village community with parks, a clubhouse, pickleball courts, and a swimming pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,188 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,027/yr (+$252/mo · 260.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,821
• − Property taxes: −$1,161
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$6,658
• Taxable loss: −$3,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $228,875 HARMLS