3837 S Inca Dove Pl · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1985 6,752 sqft lot $195/sqft · 37% above area Est $163k · 7% over $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfortable living in a peaceful cul de sac with this well maintained 1145 sq ft manufactured home. Thoughtfully designed for everyday life, it combines practical space with a bright, open feel. The addition of an expansive open area room creates a giant versatile living dynamic of your choice. The attached workshop is perfect for projects, storage, or hobby use.

Key facts

• Attached workshop
• Cul de sac
• 6,752 sq ft lot

Tags

• CUL DE SAC
• EXPANSIVE OPEN AREA ROOM
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,230
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 7.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5025 E Ironwood Cir	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (+0%)	24mo	$110,000	$123	68
4916 E Ironwood Cir	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	806 (-10%)	16mo	$32,000	$40	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,824
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $15,164
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,369

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-03-11
    price $175,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Discover comfortable living in a peaceful cul de sac with this well maintained 1145 sq ft manufactured home. Thoughtfully designed for everyday life, it combines practical space with a bright, open feel. The addition of an expansive open area room creates a giant versatile living dynamic of your choice. The attached workshop is perfect for projects, storage, or hobby use.

18. 2026-02-12
    listed $180,000 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Discover comfortable living in a peaceful cul de sac with this well maintained 1145 sq ft manufactured home. Thoughtfully designed for everyday life, it combines practical space with a bright, open feel. The addition of an expansive open area room creates a giant versatile living dynamic of your choice. The attached workshop is perfect for projects, storage, or hobby use.

19. 2025-05-14
    soldstatus $165,000
20. 2025-04-28
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

21. 2025-04-02
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

22. 2025-03-30
    status Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

23. 2025-03-29
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

24. 2025-03-28
    status Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

25. 2025-03-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

26. 2025-03-08
    listed $165,000 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    This great gem is financeable! Discover your cozy 3 Bedroom home in a peaceful cul-de-sac with gorgeous mountain views! Exterior paint is in great condition, providing lasting curb appeal. There is plenty of parking. A large covered front porch welcomes you with easy access via steps or a ramp. The yard is fenced and has an attached storage. Enjoy light-filled rooms with tile and laminate flooring. Retreat to a spacious master bedroom or make it a versatile bonus room that offers endless possibilities to fit your needs. The kitchen boasts a bay window with beautiful mountain views. Very clean and move in ready! Come see for yourself! This charming home won't last long!

27. 2007-03-15
    soldstatus $76,500
28. 2003-12-02
    soldstatus $45,000
29. 1994-12-15
    soldstatus $49,000
30. 1994-04-11
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 111.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$159
• After-tax cash flow: $3,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+297.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-28 Sold (MLS) $165,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-30 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-03-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2007-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2003-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +6653.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.