434 S Paseo Lobo Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 26 Days on market

Built 1964 Good condition $415/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mountain views from the front patio and the rare advantage of GVR available yet not required set this fully furnished Villas East villa apart. Located in a tranquil setting, this one-bedroom unit offers abundant kitchen cabinetry, a full-size gas range, and neutral tile flooring in the kitchen, living area, and bath for easy maintenance. The HOA adds exceptional value by covering HVAC, roof, water, sewer, trash, pest control, and more. With an on-site pool and a central Green Valley location, this villa is ideal as a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or easy lock-and-leave getaway.

Key facts

• Front patio
• Full-size gas range
• Fully furnished

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FRONT PATIO
• FULLY FURNISHED
• ABUNDANT KITCHEN CABINETRY
• FULL-SIZE GAS RANGE
• NEUTRAL TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee (listed); Community pool, park, and spa/hot tub; HOA maintains common areas, exterior unit maintenance, pest control, roof repair/replacement, sewer and water; road responsibility by HOA

Exterior

• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from local water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Slump block and stucco construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed paver patio; Block fencing; East/West exposure; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Reverse osmosis water filtration; Wrought iron security door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($392/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-9,284
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $11,955
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $66	+0% $33	+5% $0	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-23	+0% $33	+5% $88	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $57	base $33	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.06mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.06mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.07mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.10mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.12mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.14mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.17mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.30mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.38mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 16 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished townhouse in Green Valley offers mountain views and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ideal for a full-time residence or seasonal retreat.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace the blinds — Improves natural light and aesthetics
• Both Update the kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases value
• Both Replace the flooring — Freshens the space and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace the blinds — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update the kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Freshens the space and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ