1409 El Paso St · Wellington, TX 79095

$98,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1996 6,316 sqft lot $58/sqft · 200% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER!! UPDATED AND MOVE-IN READY!! Roof replaced in 2020; new plumbing in bathrooms- both fully renovated (2025), newer paint, new laminate and original hard wood floors throughout, new kitchen cabinets and countertops. Large fenced backyard perfect for entertaining! Backyard also has an in-ground storm shelter! This 3 bed 2 bath 2 living room home is perfect for a first time homebuyer. Call and schedule your showing.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New kitchen cabinets
• Roof replaced

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• NEW PLUMBING
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• IN-GROUND STORM SHELTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#930 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wellington ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Collingsworth County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,180 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $32,618
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: 200.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $27,368
• Equity at exit: $44,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $75,777
• Equity at exit: $68,616

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79095

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,801/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! UPDATED AND MOVE-IN READY!! Roof replaced in 2020; new plumbing in bathrooms- both fully renovated (2025), newer paint, new laminate and original hard wood floors throughout, new kitchen cabinets and countertops. Large fenced backyard perfect for entertaining! Backyard also has an in-ground storm shelter! This 3 bed 2 bath 2 living room home is perfect for a first time homebuyer. Call and schedule your showing.

17. 2026-04-08
    historical Active Under Contract 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! UPDATED AND MOVE-IN READY!! Roof replaced in 2020; new plumbing in bathrooms- both fully renovated (2025), newer paint, new laminate and original hard wood floors throughout, new kitchen cabinets and countertops. Large fenced backyard perfect for entertaining! Backyard also has an in-ground storm shelter! This 3 bed 2 bath 2 living room home is perfect for a first time homebuyer. Call and schedule your showing.

18. 2026-04-08
    status Pending 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! UPDATED AND MOVE-IN READY!! Roof replaced in 2020; new plumbing in bathrooms- both fully renovated (2025), newer paint, new laminate and original hard wood floors throughout, new kitchen cabinets and countertops. Large fenced backyard perfect for entertaining! Backyard also has an in-ground storm shelter! This 3 bed 2 bath 2 living room home is perfect for a first time homebuyer. Call and schedule your showing.

19. 2026-03-16
    listed $98,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER!! UPDATED AND MOVE-IN READY!! Roof replaced in 2020; new plumbing in bathrooms- both fully renovated (2025), newer paint, new laminate and original hard wood floors throughout, new kitchen cabinets and countertops. Large fenced backyard perfect for entertaining! Backyard also has an in-ground storm shelter! This 3 bed 2 bath 2 living room home is perfect for a first time homebuyer. Call and schedule your showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,801
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $1,415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$340
• After-tax cash flow: $2,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844890
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,447
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5316
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #930
• US rank: #16525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,569

Population outlook (Collingsworth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,066 people
• By 2030: 3,089 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 3,167 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 3,257 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 3,488 · +13.8%
• By 2100: 3,480 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 24% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collingsworth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -59.3pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+73.3 2016: R+72.6 2012: R+68.3 2008: R+59.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Current HPI: 94.8196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Contingent — AARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — AARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $98,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,801 · +41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.