639 Colonial Dr · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 830 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 Est $140k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in lovely Machesney Park, this 2 bedroom ranch is a fantastic starer home or investment property. This home features hardwood floors and updated windows throughout. Eat-in kitchen with black appliances make for a functional area for preparing meals. Large first floor laundry room could be converted into a third bedroom. Full basement has the possibility to be finished to make additional living space. Convenient attached garage and spacious backyard make this property a must-see! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Updated windows
• Full basement

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in Machesney Park, Harlem Township; Directions: Turn onto Colonial Drive from North Second Street
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); One parking space total
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (standard municipal services implied)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Estimated age 71–80 years; Not rebuilt or rehabbed
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 50 x 139.06 x 139.06; Lot smaller than 0.25 acre; School bus service available

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (approx. 10 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level (approx. 10 x 9); Additional bedroom on the main level (approx. 10 x 8); Two other bedrooms listed
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfinished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 13 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,270
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
639 Colonial Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	830 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$151	100
943 Drexel Blvd	0.31mi	2/1.0	856 (+3%)	0mo	$110,000	$129	80
901 Kingsley Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	714 (-14%)	0mo	$119,900	$168	64
1026 Drexel Blvd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	870 (+5%)	9mo	$178,000	$205	61
1105 Drexel Blvd	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	872 (+5%)	11mo	$159,000	$182	56
1014 Kingsley Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+11%)	3mo	$115,000	$124	54
1208 Drexel Blvd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	870 (+5%)	10mo	$141,100	$162	51
608 Wayne Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	926 (+12%)	10mo	$170,000	$184	49
3512 Mildred Ct	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	874 (+5%)	9mo	$157,500	$180	44
1112 Drexel Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	912 (+10%)	12mo	$186,000	$204	42
808 Renrose Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	940 (+13%)	11mo	$156,000	$166	39
337 Superior Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	712 (-14%)	13mo	$120,500	$169	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,452
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,698
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $205	+0% $170	+5% $134	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $119	+0% $170	+5% $220	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $201	base $170	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	14d	1	0.78mi
3701 Trilling Ave Unit 3701-104 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Located in lovely Machesney Park, this 2 bedroom ranch is a fantastic starer home or investment property. This home features hardwood floors and updated windows throughout. Eat-in kitchen with black appliances make for a functional area for preparing meals. Large first floor laundry room could be converted into a third bedroom. Full basement has the possibility to be finished to make additional living space. Convenient attached garage and spacious backyard make this property a must-see! Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-23
   status Pending 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Located in lovely Machesney Park, this 2 bedroom ranch is a fantastic starer home or investment property. This home features hardwood floors and updated windows throughout. Eat-in kitchen with black appliances make for a functional area for preparing meals. Large first floor laundry room could be converted into a third bedroom. Full basement has the possibility to be finished to make additional living space. Convenient attached garage and spacious backyard make this property a must-see! Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-05-22
   listed $125,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Located in lovely Machesney Park, this 2 bedroom ranch is a fantastic starer home or investment property. This home features hardwood floors and updated windows throughout. Eat-in kitchen with black appliances make for a functional area for preparing meals. Large first floor laundry room could be converted into a third bedroom. Full basement has the possibility to be finished to make additional living space. Convenient attached garage and spacious backyard make this property a must-see! Schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-05-22
   listed $125,000 Active 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Located in lovely Machesney Park, this 2 bedroom ranch is a fantastic starer home or investment property. This home features hardwood floors and updated windows throughout. Eat-in kitchen with black appliances make for a functional area for preparing meals. Large first floor laundry room could be converted into a third bedroom. Full basement has the possibility to be finished to make additional living space. Convenient attached garage and spacious backyard make this property a must-see! Schedule your showing today!

5. 2022-06-17
   soldstatus $94,000
6. 2022-06-14
   soldstatus $94,000 730-char remark

   Show marketing remark (730 chars)

   This cozy 2 bedroom ranch is the perfect starter home or investment property! The interior has been freshly painted throughout, and features hardwood floors in the living room, bedrooms, and hallway. The bathroom includes a tile shower and new vinyl plank floors! Continue to the kitchen to find black appliances, updated hardware and an eat-in area. Toward the back of the home there is a large main floor laundry room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom! Also, the home features an attached 1 car garage. The roof, windows, vinyl siding, garage door, A/C, and furnace all updated since 2016! The water heater has been updated in 2021, Front gutters, downspouts, & front door all updated 2022! Move-in ready!

7. 2022-06-14
   soldstatus $94,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (730 chars)

   This cozy 2 bedroom ranch is the perfect starter home or investment property! The interior has been freshly painted throughout, and features hardwood floors in the living room, bedrooms, and hallway. The bathroom includes a tile shower and new vinyl plank floors! Continue to the kitchen to find black appliances, updated hardware and an eat-in area. Toward the back of the home there is a large main floor laundry room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom! Also, the home features an attached 1 car garage. The roof, windows, vinyl siding, garage door, A/C, and furnace all updated since 2016! The water heater has been updated in 2021, Front gutters, downspouts, & front door all updated 2022! Move-in ready!

8. 2022-04-15
   status Pending
9. 2022-04-12
   listed $80,000 730-char remark

   Show marketing remark (730 chars)

   This cozy 2 bedroom ranch is the perfect starter home or investment property! The interior has been freshly painted throughout, and features hardwood floors in the living room, bedrooms, and hallway. The bathroom includes a tile shower and new vinyl plank floors! Continue to the kitchen to find black appliances, updated hardware and an eat-in area. Toward the back of the home there is a large main floor laundry room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom! Also, the home features an attached 1 car garage. The roof, windows, vinyl siding, garage door, A/C, and furnace all updated since 2016! The water heater has been updated in 2021, Front gutters, downspouts, & front door all updated 2022! Move-in ready!

10. 2022-04-12
    listed $80,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    This cozy 2 bedroom ranch is the perfect starter home or investment property! The interior has been freshly painted throughout, and features hardwood floors in the living room, bedrooms, and hallway. The bathroom includes a tile shower and new vinyl plank floors! Continue to the kitchen to find black appliances, updated hardware and an eat-in area. Toward the back of the home there is a large main floor laundry room that could easily be converted into a third bedroom! Also, the home features an attached 1 car garage. The roof, windows, vinyl siding, garage door, A/C, and furnace all updated since 2016! The water heater has been updated in 2021, Front gutters, downspouts, & front door all updated 2022! Move-in ready!

11. 2020-06-12
    soldstatus $63,000 Closed Sale
12. 2020-06-12
    soldstatus $63,000
13. 2020-05-05
    status Pending
14. 2020-05-01
    listed $62,000 New
15. 2020-05-01
    listed $62,000
16. 2016-09-30
    soldstatus $51,900
17. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus $51,900 Closed Sale
18. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus $51,900
19. 2016-08-08
    status Pending
20. 2016-05-17
    status Reactivated
21. 2016-05-09
    status Pending
22. 2016-04-21
    price $55,900
23. 2016-04-12
    listed $57,900 New
24. 2016-04-01
    listed $55,900
25. 2011-10-18
    soldstatus $24,000 Closed Sale
26. 2011-10-10
    price $29,900 Price Change
27. 2011-09-26
    listed $35,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $31
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-05-22 Listed $125,000 NWIAR
• 2026-05-22 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-14 Sold (MLS) $94,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Sold (MLS) $94,000 NWIAR
• 2022-04-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Listed $80,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Listed $80,000 NWIAR
• 2020-06-12 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-12 Sold (MLS) $63,000 NWIAR
• 2020-05-05 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-01 Listed $62,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-01 Listed $62,000 NWIAR
• 2016-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 2016-09-29 Sold (MLS) $51,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-29 Sold (MLS) $51,900 NWIAR
• 2016-08-08 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-17 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-09 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-21 Price Changed $55,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-12 Listed $57,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-01 Listed $55,900 NWIAR
• 2011-10-18 Sold (MLS) $24,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-10 Price Changed $29,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-26 Listed $35,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,622 · -17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.