2130 Hayes Rd · Stowell, TX 77665

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1997 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Settle into peaceful rural living at 2130 Hayes Rd. This 2 bed, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot outside city limits, giving you room to breathe and the freedom to use the land as you choose. Enjoy morning coffee from your front porch or make plans to add a garden, workshop, animals, or additional improvements. With a carport, full acre of land, and a layout with potential, this property offers a great opportunity for someone ready to personalize a space and enjoy the country lifestyle.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Carport
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,466 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing D, schools F, amenities F.
• East Chambers ISD (town): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #199 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.95%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,031
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $31,027
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77665

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    price $85,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    status Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Settle into peaceful rural living at 2130 Hayes Rd. This 2 bed, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot outside city limits, giving you room to breathe and the freedom to use the land as you choose. Enjoy morning coffee from your front porch or make plans to add a garden, workshop, animals, or additional improvements. With a carport, full acre of land, and a layout with potential, this property offers a great opportunity for someone ready to personalize a space and enjoy the country lifestyle.

16. 2026-03-07
    status Pending 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Settle into peaceful rural living at 2130 Hayes Rd. This 2 bed, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot outside city limits, giving you room to breathe and the freedom to use the land as you choose. Enjoy morning coffee from your front porch or make plans to add a garden, workshop, animals, or additional improvements. With a carport, full acre of land, and a layout with potential, this property offers a great opportunity for someone ready to personalize a space and enjoy the country lifestyle.

17. 2026-02-26
    price $100,000 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Settle into peaceful rural living at 2130 Hayes Rd. This 2 bed, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot outside city limits, giving you room to breathe and the freedom to use the land as you choose. Enjoy morning coffee from your front porch or make plans to add a garden, workshop, animals, or additional improvements. With a carport, full acre of land, and a layout with potential, this property offers a great opportunity for someone ready to personalize a space and enjoy the country lifestyle.

18. 2025-12-04
    listed $120,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Settle into peaceful rural living at 2130 Hayes Rd. This 2 bed, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot outside city limits, giving you room to breathe and the freedom to use the land as you choose. Enjoy morning coffee from your front porch or make plans to add a garden, workshop, animals, or additional improvements. With a carport, full acre of land, and a layout with potential, this property offers a great opportunity for someone ready to personalize a space and enjoy the country lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$626
• After-tax cash flow: $3,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including roof and exterior work, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible damage to roof structure
• Moderate exterior siding — weathered and peeling
• Minor interior paint — chipped in some areas

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both repair roof damage — fixes structural issue and improves value
• Both replace windows — increases energy efficiency and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible damage to roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and peeling	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior paint · chipped in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair roof damage — fixes structural issue and improves value ↑
• Both replace windows — increases energy efficiency and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Chambers ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817880
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,131
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #3411
• State rank: #199 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stowell

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1466
• US rank: #25107

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stowell, TX
• City population: 8,144
• Population (ZIP): 7,751

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.27%
• Current HPI: 187.3594
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,018 · +35.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.